Another crazy TC! How you do you plan to move on going forward!

THIS IS THE BIG ONE

Two, Seven, Off-Suit

What's the worst hand you can have in Hold 'Em poker? A two-seven off-suit. Right? Let's say you sit at the table, get dealt the cards, and see you have that. Then, the player to your left goes all-in before the flop. Do you follow in? Of fucking course not. Now, that's a little extreme, but practically any poker-savvy could tell you not to bet, no matter what the amount, with that hand.

But some games, if you did bet, you'd still be able to win that hand. Say that the five cards in the middle had three two's or three seven's, and alas, four of a kind! You're golden! Would you have made a mistake not betting? Of course not! Why the fuck should you have bet? You had the worst hand in the world. It doesn't matter that you'd have won all those riches, it still would've been a bad move, even though it would have ended up panning out for you, with that luck, against the odds.

I say the same thing here. There are a lot of decisions that I've made that I could second guess. Perhaps, if I'd done something differently, we'd not currently be in this situation, in one of those other trillions of different universes that exist in quantum physics. There's a universe where I never even signed in to the forums to participate in the game, and everyone dragged me along as a goat to F3 where I'd end up winning in finals against two awful people that the jury hated so much that they wanted me to win over them, even though I never showed up. That outcome is probably better than the one that I'm going to face. But does that mean that I made a mistake not following that inactive strategy over the one that I did? No! Of course not.

The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle

If I flash back, what could I have done differently.

Voted Penny out earlier? Sure.
Kept Ted around longer? Sure.
Never lying to the Asterias? Sure.
Played completely honorably? Sure.
Not coming on early as a challenge threat? Sure.
Insisted on voting for Rob or Joanna this round? Sure.
Stayed loyal to the Rob/Christy/Brian/Helen F4 agreement? Sure.

Seeing how things turned out now, some of those above questions stand out like they might have changed my fate. Perhaps for the better. Perhaps for the worse. There's no way of knowing. But I sit here asking myself if I made a mistake.

Did I...? Make a mistake, that is?

I don't know.

The most immediate one of consequence was voting for Christy this round. Surely, that could be easily reversed, but it wasn't in my power, which is my own fault for leaving Penny here. But taking her out would have been an entirely different task of entirely different consequence. And moreover, we had a one in three chance of hitting the idol. It’s not like this was dramatic choice based on the fundamental laws of nature. It was rolling a (physically impossible) three-sided dice.

Fulfilling Rob's ideal F4 agreement is the one that comes up most often, as we've had so many opportunities to follow it. But in doing so, I still think that we'd have surely been picked off when they had the opportunity. Does Rob disagree? Yeah, obviously. Will he still argue the same point post-game? Maybe he'll admit he was lying all along and would’ve taken the numbers advantage when he’d have had the chance, dunno. Even if it would have panned out, I still think it would have been reckless to give him that opportunity, especially considering how everyone has targeted me of being most deserving and biggest threat to win the game, now.

The two above are random. A 1/3 chance of voting someone, yeah, random. Trying to read the likelihood of someone lying over non-realtime, typed communication? Sure, there's still an element of skill in that, but to a degree, still random. Because this Rob might have brought us to F4, but another person playing Rob who'd have had the exact same conversations to me may not have.

I can live with those.

The one that bothers me is booting Ted. It wouldn't bother me so much if it weren't for the fact that I believe in my heart that he was loyal to Brian and I. But his self-motivated actions, while understandable, stood to jeopardize our game. This is the only one that I might change because there might, just might, have been a way to show him our loyalty and get him in line. But it was uncertain, because his intentions were unclear, and that's what made him such an enigma, and a variable in the systems that we had to evaluate.

Overall, my strategy with Brian was to assume that everyone else made their best possible move at all times. And based on anticipating that, we had to make our moves, to eliminate the foreseen moves of others that would jeopardize our safety. And even with all the lies and deceit involved, I was still voted the one who “deserves to win most” and is the “biggest threat to win the game.” So I’ll take it, and I stand behind the decisions I made. Maybe with a different flop, turn, and river, I’d be sitting in a better seat.

Reflection

All that aside, I'm content with the game I've played. Rob chastised me that I'd leave with everyone hating me, nothing to show for it, but the pride for a placement that has no value and is of no material consequence. I disagree.





Unlike Rob, I don't think I'd leave with "comfort" from having a "great rivalry." In fact, I'd probably leave with nightmares and a prescription for blood pressure medication.

Having played heaps of these games before, losing many and winning some (like most people), you realize (and I certainly do, going five years now being removed from the ORG community---save for two games since then---and being nearly eight years removed from my induction) that the people you cross paths with here are just like those you spend time with in something as simple as a college class (among many other examples). Some of them, you don't even see. Some of them, you glance at, exchanging unspoken cues. Some of them, you talk to, albeit the conversation will likely be nothing deep. When you finish the final for that class (or are done with a game) all those people mentioned vanish from your life. Maybe you'll see them again and remember them, and maybe not. But also in those classes, you'll sometimes meet a great friend, but it'll take a lot for that academically convenient friendship to extend beyond the classroom and beyond your university life entirely. But sometimes it happens. And when it does, we cherish it.

The same can be said for these games. Most of these people, I'll forget even existed. I don't say it to be mean, but it's true, and they probably will, too. But there are people from back in my heyday of ORG (I realize when I keep saying that, I sound like such an oldie, which is probably condescending and patronizing to those older than me or around longer than me, but alas), that I remain friends with today. That I still talk to. That I've met in person. That, even though we're removed from ORG now, and talk as much as you would with your long-distance friends, which isn’t too much, I would still share with them many of the same things that I'd keep to my closest confidants, because of the confidence that we'd built. The funny thing is, the one specific example that comes to mind, he actually stabbed me in the back taking me (as the jury threat) out at F3 in the most insignificant of games, only for him to become runner-up. And that was months, maybe even years, after our friendship had started and solidified. It got fixed afterwards. Where am I going with this? I'm not sure. But you can get friends from ORGs if you want it, if you find the right people, no matter how it is that you play.

And, truthfully, I think the bond that I've built with Brian (barring his possible intentions of ousting me before the final, which I still doubt, but the challenge reminded me tonight of the possibility) is certainly stronger than that of Erin/Penny, likely stronger than Joanna/Rob and Joanna/Christy, and possibly stronger than Rob/Christy---to contradict what Rob has pointed out. Every thought that I've contemplated for days, maybe even weeks, now, has gone to him for consultation, and I believe he has done with me. He has my implicit trust, and even if he misuses it, I'd be alright with that. Does he fall into the category of the last paragraph? Well, this has only been three weeks of playing, and not three years, so maybe not to the same degree, but it could eventually amount to everything or nothing. You never know.

On the real show of Survivor, the cast is full people that you could actually turn out to be friends with for life; compared to ORG comrades, it's a radically different thing that you'd be throwing away, but perhaps those people (older, wiser, more understanding) are more forgiving post-game than people like Rob and Joanna would seem to be, since they know people will do a lot for a million dollars. And therein would lie the difference. But, sure, forgiveness doesn’t come easy, if at all.

And I'm not using that as a justification for my screwing people over. That was just game theory. Not everyone agrees with it; Rob has been vocal that he doesn't. But it's a strategy that I'm comfortable with. It's one that I find effective. And morally ambiguous as it may be, the strategy itself and the decisions and actions that go along with it, it's something that I'm still satisfied with and don't regret. Rob may not think the game I've played would have been fun, but I did. Like I mentioned during Helios' demoralizing losing streak, parity comes into play a lot in this kind of game, so it should be the ride that matters, and not the end result.

I've already described that game theory in detail, and explained why eliminating Shawna, and Daniel, and Ted was important to setting up my and Brian's endgame to ensure that our chosen alliance wouldn't have the chance to improve their standing by turning on us (or at least as minimal of a chance that we could make it), and that's beyond the scope of this entry, so I'll leave it at that.

The Next Step

I'm not giving up. We still have game left to play. Though it appears that Rob has the idol, it isn't certain. We still have a chance of pulling a 3-3 with avoiding the idol. I still have a chance at an immunity run. There's lots that can happen. But at this point, everything seems predetermined. There isn't going to be much convincing anyone anything. Just challenge and vote. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

Approaching Asteria with offers of a truce would seem disingenuous, so I probably won't even offend them with the idea. Plus, they'd be dumb to go for it, especially after all that's happened. I'll try to talk more tete-a-tete with Christy to see if anything comes of it, since I find my conversations with her more genuine than those with Rob. We need to ensure Penny's loyalty, perhaps by creating a fake idol, so that she's less tempted to swap (since, as an arguably bigger goat that Joanna, it probably is in her best interests to jump ship and ride Asteria to F4 and rely on Rob or Christy to want her standing beside them in finals). Immunity whoring is my fallback, which I hate, since I hate immunity whores, and I disagree with them winning. But perhaps, if I manage to stand in finals, the jury will respect my pre-whoring game, and acknowledge that I only needed to resort to Plan B because of an unlucky turn.

If it doesn't work out, as a potential juror, I hope to vote on strategy and respect. Penny and Joanna have both lost my vote already. Penny's strategic game is god awful and her approach is even worse. I find Joanna to be hilarious, though immature, but Rob and Christy are her far better counterparts. I owe Brian my loyalty, certainly, but if one of the other two were to step up to show that they've played a far superior game, I'd certainly consider it. Currently, I'd lean towards Christy over Rob, because she's exhibited a far greater maturity, both by avoiding childish forum confrontations and also in how composed and respectful she is in post-blindside private messages. She is also perceived to be somewhat of a bigger threat, aside from those social factors, and displayed a brilliant move this evening that deserves my respect.

Regardless of how it turns out, for me, or for others, I wish all of the remaining players the absolute best of luck. I wish the remainder of the game to play out organically, and have no interests in affecting any of the eliminations following my own, until the Final Temple Council. And to whomever the winner, my utmost accolades (particularly if they're one of the three I've mentioned above). I will neither have nor hold any ill will or resentment against any of the remaining, but that doesn't mean I don't expect them to hold it against me. But with everything that I've said above, I can live with that because I've still had fun.

Time

This might not be my last IC/TC in the game. I might win immunity. The tie might work out for us. I'm still hoping, as we all are. But in the event that I do leave on Sunday (or anytime next week, actually) this digest---surely my longest to date---will serve as my wake and my final words to the staff and the readers.

I came here looking to test my skill at the game of Stranded. The formula (with the fully monitored and regulated forums) is closer to Survivor than any other online counterpart that I've seen. After finally deciding that it's my time to apply for the game, and seeing that I had a tiresome (read: boring) five week winter break to anticipate, I decided to accept the invitation to apply to one of the very few ORGs that I've participated in for years after leaving the community, for the opportunity that the challenge presents (I mention this so much that you must be tired of reading it).

I may not be making the finals, maybe not even the final five, but I'm satisfied with my performance, whatever it ends up being. I'm satisfied with my experience, and I'm satisfied with my strategy and the results that it's turned. One thing I've realized playing these for so long is that everyone has their own approach to gaming, and they can't help it. I'll always be me. It would be hard for me to mold a completely new game plan that doesn't suit my personality. Is it possible? Maybe. But unlikely. If it seemed necessary though, I can't say that I wouldn't try. But even though my anticipated placement here is sub-par or below my expectations, I don't think I'd change my strategy, for the reasons that I've described above. Pocket rockets won’t always win you the hand.

The past three weeks, I've been able to prepare, strategize, and write heaps since I've been sitting in my bedroom glancing at my snow-covered windowsill and waiting for the semester to finally commence. On Monday, it finally does. So this will be my final digest. The big one. If my academic obligations had been present all along, I surely wouldn't have been able to write an entire feature-length novel in the time that I’ve been here (release date TBA) including solely the contents of this forum. So, though I'm certainly not hoping for it, Sunday night would be a fitting end, just hours before my first class, as it's time to resume my real life with real responsibilities and real accomplishments, where these games are nothing more than a memory, albeit quite a fond one.

Dedications

I want to thank Poody and the entire hosting staff for running such an organized game and series. I've thoroughly enjoyed it, and sincerely hope that you've enjoyed hosting this iteration, as well. And I do want to apologize if any of my actions (loopholes, or strategies, or TC answers) have resulted in an uninteresting game or unenthused experience on your end. I know what it's like on the other side, and thank you for your patience. I truly do hope that post-game can afford me the opportunity to hear or learn more about the previous seasons and creative twists that you've conspired to force upon the players. If any of them were as thematically fitting and sociologically intriguing as this one, then I'm very excited to listen.

I also specifically (and with great fondness) want to thank Brenda for reading and responding to all of my SHIT, along with anyone else who has endured my writing to this point (on this topic alone, much less my entire confessional) as it surely approaches the length of the New Testament. I hope that you've found it fruitful, informative, and thought-provoking.

Desiderata

And at the closure of a fantastic ride, my memory will always be of the experience and not the outcome, regardless of what the outcome will be or might have been.

I may not have adhered to it very well in the context of the game, but the following is a brilliant passage, nonetheless.

I sort of hit on this with Rob, that we all find pleasure from different sources. Be it game theory, success, or friendship. It doesn't matter where it's coming from, but happiness is the fundamental element to come of those things. It’s why we exist, or at the very least, why we should.

I left ORGs because they lacked happiness anymore (and because my life didn’t allot time for them). I took them too seriously. They were hurtful and demoralizing. Maybe they were different then, or maybe I am different now. But I’m happy to have been here to alter my final impression. To no longer recall the frustration and sadness, but the enjoyment.

I could go on to explain the feelings and memories (from this game and otherwise) that each stanza of the poem evokes, but that would defeat the entire purpose. If you’ve gotten to this point reading, you’ve been following this story for long enough to understand it, or at least some part of it. It isn’t my memories that you take with you, but your own impressions. So, it isn’t my ride that matters anymore, but your own.

Go placidly amidst the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexations to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals; and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be, and whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful.

Strive to be happy.

Don't be writing your own epitaph just yet, even if you feel the outcome is a forgone conclusion, there is always wiggle room, and I'm looking forward to seeing how you handle the situation over the next few rounds.

Just to rewind back to last Ep's confessional before I tackle this, you said you tweaked your answers to hopefully influence the challenge (and good job, that was successfully done & nice win), how about giving us your real answers here, and a brief reason behind each?

Also, you're a poker player too? We would so get on IRL. I'm both awful and brilliant at Poker, usually in the same night

I can't say that I'm much of a poker player, though I'm knowledgeable to the rules and strategies, and surrounded by people that are far more knowledgable at both.

I'd actually say that I agreed with the majority answer on all of them, except personally, I'd have picked Brian on "trust with your life." The rest, I would say, accurately coincided with my thoughts. I actually didn't know who to vote for in the two "win" categories between myself, Brian, Christy, and Rob, but figured that I'd kick myself if I was supposed to be the majority answer and I screwed it up, so I put it, and waited for the group to share their response.

Brian has my implicit trust, so I'd personally trust him with my life (and he's also the most normal, making the best relationship material IMO). Penny is truly most annoying, out of her league, and the biggest goat. Joanna is absolutely funniest (with Christy and Rob respectively behind), but I'd still have put Christy out of absentmindedness. Erin's playing up to Daniel on the jury, for certain, hence getting picked for that question, and Rob/Christy are both more interesting than me (in public, I suppose, maybe not confessional/PMs) so I'd not have an issue electing them to all-stars over myself. Please just save us from Penny again, though.

And I'm not giving up, but the way that I see it is this. Assuming Rob has the idol (which is contested, of course), my odds are as follows in the situation where Penny and Brian both do stay loyal to me:

1/6 chance of winning immunity to survive the round
1/3 chance to avoid their idol to deadlock
1/2 chance to win tiebreaker

That leaves my odds of surviving this round at somewhere near 27%. And if Penny turns, those will be far worse. Can I survive? Why of course. I'm still playing, aren't I? The above isn't me giving into a foregone conclusion, but sharing my parting words while I still have the time to share them in full, in the event that they do, in fact, become necessary. I'm still playing, no doubt.

I also want to say that Rob's a little piece of shit for asking for a jury vote deal out of me, and I've actually lost respect for him, as a result. I think part of it comes from a blow to his ego over the fact that he wanted and expecting the two "win" survey questions to be directed at him, but the guesses at the popular answer were blowouts in my favor. He's too butthurt over that to accept that lying is a viable strategy, and that after a decade of game-players, people accept that now. But he's too goddamn stubborn to believe that anyone's playing a better game than himself, although, to be honest with you, I still think that Christy pwns him if it ends up being an all-Asteria F3. And if that happens, I think Rob will blame it on bitterness instead of his own immature approach and disregard for others. I don't know what makes him think that he's a strategic "titan" besides the fact that he bickers like a Jewish mother whose cooking you're attempting to refuse. Not to mention, until this last message that I just sent him to explain everything (while removing the Daniel parts at the last minute, to reduce the likelihood of Penny turning as a result of Rob exposing it to garner her mistrust in me, which frankly, he already has at his disposal in my ad hominem anger, if he wants), I don't think he even understood everything that I did to ensure getting to this point.

Believe it or not, all mistrusts aside, if I were to make a gentleman's agreement with him to target Joanna/Penny or to keep ourselves safe this round, I would actually be loyal to it, right now. However, the idol throws a corkscrew into everything, and even the discussion of such an agreement could give him insight into who our votes are going to land on so that he can protect his side.

I've asked you this before, but I'm sure it changes as the rounds go on (and could easily change depending on the manner of your exit/talking to other jurors/FTC performance) but who would you vote for to win of the other five right now?

A one through five list if you will.

I see that, for once, you didn't have it in you to read the entirety of my soliloquy, most notably, The Next Step section.

1. Brian, 2. Christy, 3. Rob, 4. Joanna, 5. Penny (though the latter two don't even matter, in principle)

Yes, putting Brian at the top is partially the result of emotion and loyalty, but also respect for a game near-identical to mine own, which I regard as being more fool-proof as the perceived strategy of the others. But, given the opportunity, and a quality explanation of why their dealings are more impressive than all that I know of Brian's, Christy and, to a lesser extent, Rob, can take over the top spot if performance dictates it.

I have not read it yet, I'm afraid.

My love of statistics has me running possible jury outcomes and what each players best path to the end is :D With only 20 outcomes, this should be easy to predict, but there's too many goddamned variables!

Thank you for the info though (although a 1-2-3 of B/C/R is what I had you pegged as anyway).

If Penny actually sticks with us through all of this, and it works (be it her aversion to Rob, her best interests, or her legitimate loyalty), I'll truly be indebted to her and probably couldn't find it in me to take her out, if given the option. I actually started to consider ridiculous plans like giving her immunity if we won it to make sure she didn't flip, but it seems like that won't be necessary.

The truth is, this is the perfect time for my big mouth (with everything I've been saying about Penny to others) to come back to bite me if Rob and Christy and Joanna use it properly. It would be a low blow to copy and paste everything, but a fair one, and I think it'd be successful. They might question whether or not it'd be worth it though based simply on the fact that it could have been all lies. Regardless, I'm their biggest target for challenges, strategy, revenge, and (apparently, according to them, at least) finals, and I've given them ample ammunition to use against me. If any of it works, it's my own doing, to an extent, but that's totally alright, because chances are slim enough as they are. But especially hearing Penny's loyalty, just gotta have faith.

Amend my jury vote list:

Put Rob at the very bottom; he thinks awfully highly of himself for someone who lost by a landslide in "most deserving" and "most threatening to win" to (who he claims to be) an awful player, and he's awfully critical of my strategic game for someone whose regrettable social game manages to be unparalleled. I don't give a shit if he respects my game. I implore him to vote against me if he doesn't like it. But for someone who is guilty of targeting the "deserving" players in the same manner that he accuses me of doing, his hypocrisy and wholly unnecessary attempts to incite arguments and stir ill will (against himself, no less, so it's not even accomplishing anything) is truly the most bloated and inaccurate self-assessment of a player that exists outside the brain of Russell Hantz.

Penny can move to third if she proves to be loyal this round, since she's at least come up with shit (failures as it may be sometimes) whereas Joanna appears to just sit there.

So who is leaving tonight?

Is this dead set down old tribal lines or is there some wiggle room?