If this challenge doesn't give them something to talk about at TC nothing will..

Rob: Sweet. Wait until you're at like the 9.5 minute mark so that Erin doesn't whip hers out.

icon_doubleentendre

Wow...

Sunday is going to be one hell of a day. I can't wait to see the new tiebreaker in action.

I am so glad we don't have the old one right now. I'll work up "official rules" in a bit.

Final Six & Jury

Now normally I suck at predicting Jury outcomes, but since I have most of the picture for once, and the juror's so far are being particularly loose lipped, I have a chance for once. There are twenty possible combinations for the F3 line-up.

Now obvi a lot of this will come down to the manner of the final three boots, jury chatter, FTC performance etc. but right now I see a few almost foregone conclusions;
Christy, Helen, Brian 5-1-1
Christy, Helen, Rob 4-2-1
Christy, Helen, Penny 4-2-1
Christy, Joanna, Rob 4-2-1
Christy, Brian, Rob 4-3-0
Christy, Penny, Rob 5-2-0
Christy, Brian, Penny 4-2-1
Christy, Joanna, Penny 4-2-1
Helen, Penny, Brian 4-3-0
Helen, Rob, Brian 4-2-1
Helen, Penny, Rob 4-2-1
Joanna, Brian, Penny 4-2-1
Joanna. Brian, Rob 4-2-1

Then you have a few which are not quite as easy to predict (usually thanks to cray-cray Penny :D )
Joanna, Helen, Brian 3-2-0 + Rob/Penny votes?
Helen, Joanna, Penny 3-3-0 + Rob vote?
Helen, Joanna, Rob 3-3-0 + Penny vote?
Brian, Penny, Rob 2-2-2 + Christy vote?
Christy, Brian, Joanna 2-2-2 + Penny vote?
Christy, Helen, Joanna 2-2-2 + Penny vote?
Rob, Joanna, Penny 3-3-1 + Penny 3rd Place & deciding vote.

So what does this mean for the players right now?
Christy/Joanna are in the precarious position of needing the other out of the game, but as amicably as possible. If Christy is in the game, Joanna can't win. Christy doesn't absolutely need her out, but if joanna stays in, there's a chance she might steal some of her potential votes. Chisty's only slim chance of getting to the end and losing, is if she faces either Joanna/Brian or Joanna/Helen with Joanna receiving votes from Shawna & Dan votes meaning a 3-2-2 in favour of the Helios member (depending on Penny).

Helen also needs Christy to GTFO. She simply cannot beat her barring a freak 3-2-2 against a Christy/Joanna combo. Helen needs to target Christy, then Joanna for her best odds, but likely she is thinking Christy then Rob. Never talking to Daniel or Shawna is coming back to haunt her, and she has no idea how little time either of them had for Rob.

Joanna has a very real chance of backdooring a win if both Helen & Christy get booted. This is a very real possibility as they are both known threats to win, and all three of Rob/Brian/Penny underestimate JoJo's social connections & would be quite happy 'bringing' her plus one of the other two to the end - taking out the two bigger threats along the way. :o Even at that though, Joanna needs to perform well at FTC and explain how her social game is a strategy in itself. Go Jo Go!!

For the other three it's grim reading indeed. Brian has most options, but he needs to make some big moves right now and be prepared to own them - being the man responsible for taking out both of Christy and Helen *might* just swing it in his favour. His best shot is to do this plus a Joanna boot, and sit himself between Rob & Penny (although he too overestimates Rob's Jury appeal & is already eying up Penny/Jo as his preferred F3 partners).

Rob is screwed altogether - his only hopes are a Rob/Penny/Brian or Rob/Penny/Joanna/F3 - but undoubtedly his cocky FTC speech will only make a mockery of the few moves he can legitimately claim credit for & turn off even favourable Jurors - so I'm gonna write him off. Booting Erin instead of Brian last night killed any real hopes for the win.

Poor Penny just cannot win. Not without pulling off an FTC speech that completely blows people away and convinces people that it was all an act and coming off as crazy as she has was part of the plan. But that ain't happening either. Penny is out of the running for certain, although she is the most likely to actually make the finals because of it.

So much of this depends on the manner of the boots, immunities, FTC speech etc. but right now I'm gonna call a Joanna win. Helen & Christy to be taken out post haste. With Joanna beating Penny plus whichever of Rob/Brian wins the final immunity at the end.

Go JoJo go! <3

Penny says she'd vote Christy > Rob > Helen ftw right now. So that pretty much just locks Christy into the win in another half dozen scenarios

Rob has finally started playing looking at his last few messages. Sure it's too little too late, and it's awfully clumsily done, but at least he's moving in the right direction. He has an absolute mountain to climb though. I don't think theres enough time to make enough good moves to compensate for his terrible early game play.

Can I just say I love watching Ted slam all and sundry's opinions in Ponderosa.

Forget what I said about Rob moving in the right direction. He was maybe looking in the right direction, but he's made such a ham-handed approach that he's scared off Brian in the process Penny is still flighty enough that she may jump, especially if it's a tie-break situation tonight and she becomes vulnerable to death by purple rock, but that's no thanks to Rob.

The only other possible flipper is Rob himself, but he doesn't see the benefit in taking out Christy. If she left tonight, then (and only then) might Brian become willing to work with him to take out Helen. Rob could buy back some credit with the jury and with Brian & Penny if Christy were to leave by his hand.

Also, impending catfight in Ponderosa as the strategic titans of Erin & Shawna go head to head. Can we get a paddling pool and some jelly up in here?

Rob sucks. I thought everyone knew?

Ugh, I know. I thought there was a glimmer of hope though.

Curse my optimistic nature.