I have no idea what to think of Ted. I think my jury vote for him would depend almost entirely on how he would sell his game to the jury. If it turns out that he'd have pulled the wool over everyone's eyes, and can explain his execution perfectly the way it looks to me right now, then I'd have to give it to him, and I'd probably vote for him over everyone else, aside from Brian (partly out of loyalty, and partly because both Brian and I seem to have finally seen the light).

The Bargaining Problem, and Non-Cooperative Games

The truth is, I will take the deserving players to the end to be judged alongside them (for the purposes of an ORG), but only if they can be trusted to work together to get there---and "trusted" isn't by loyalty and emotions and messages, but by game theory. If Ted was working alongside Brian and I, and not offering Rob plans and not telling us about it, and then using Rob to strong arm us into getting Ted's way, I'd still take Ted to finals. But, Ted's looking out for Ted, and I can't blame him for that, but that also means it's too challenging to work to get to the end with Ted when Ted might be working to get to the end with someone else, or at the very least, get a Christy/Rob v Helen/Brian showdown while he sits pretty in the middle.

Deservingness is one component that is very hard to explain. And my justification primary resides in the game theoretical approach. You have to expect everyone to make their best move possible at any point in time. Which is why Brian's and my strategy is based on eliminating those moves that people are able to make so that they stay loyal to the plans that we want. When deserving people are complicit in that, I wouldn't eliminate them, because they'll play with me, and I can get judged alongside them at the end of the game to determine how well I really played.

We blindsided Shawna to prevent Rob from using Asteria to pull a 5-4 or 6-3 pagonging of Helios.

We blindsided Daniel to prevent Penny/Erin from using Daniel/Joanna to go four-strong against Daniel/me/Ted with Christy likely with Joanna.

We're blindsiding Ted to prevent him from forcing us to bring Joanna/Rob/Christy to the F6 where they might target Brian or I since Ted has the idol, or where Ted could turn on us completely at F6, or where Rob/Christy could act like we're fulfilling the F4 deal only to play their idol and blindside us, or have Ted join Rob/Christy at F5 against me/Brian so that he could get the four Helios juror votes. Actually, now that I've said it, the last one sounds awfully more likely than I ever thought before.

Now, am I saying that Rob or Ted or Christy or Penny or Daniel or whomever will DEFINITELY do these things to take Brian and I out? No. In fact, some have sworn their loyalty to us, so they might even sacrifice their game to fulfill the plans that we have with them, but there's nothing certain in that, they could be lying. As such, that isn't an excuse for us to play ignorantly and give them the opportunity to gain the upper hand. It's the entire foundation of our game to not give others that chance to take us out, because if we give it to them, and they take it, there's nothing we can do, and we've lost.

So long as deservingness doesn't interfere with the game theoretical approach, I'm fine with it. That's why Brian is in every one of my endgame plans, because even thought I might not be able to beat him, it's in his every best interest to continue playing the game with me until the final few TCs, and I can trust that. If Ted didn't give us indications that he was doing otherwise, the same would stand for him. Penny and Erin are clearly looking for their own best interests, and it would be naive to not expect Rob/Christy/Joanna to do the same, even though they've said to the contrary. It's not about trust; it's about control.

And this is when you can quote all of my "deservingness" posts---from both when I've admitted Rob/Christy are more deserving but I don't want them at the end or when I've used deservingness as a ploy to regain their trust---and call me a hypocrite (as I've predicated, mind you).

I'm not trying to trap you or trip you up, I just like talking theory with you. The deserving or nay conundrum is what tripped me up last Season. I believed my closest ally was playing with the same rationale as me - that both of us believed we had a fair shot of beating the other at the end - but as it turned out she didn't, and took me out to get to the end with two goats instead So continue to talk nerdy to me tyvm :)

Given the reasons you made the moves you did at F10 and F9 (and are planning for tonight), would it be fair to say you are playing a reactive game instead of a pro-active one?

Oh, now I have to worry about Brian! Darn. Well, if he takes me out at four to go to the finals with those dastardly damsels, maybe he'll hear it from the jury, but deserve the win nonetheless, so I'll live.

I've actually been watching game theory lectures since New Year's along with trying to catch-up on Game of Thrones, Boardwalk Empire, and Downton Abbey, but it's sort of stopped now, which is unfortunate since I didn't even make it to the good part (of game theory that is). But I'm bookmarking everything to resume that for my Survivor prep along with some other theses about Survivor and Nash that I hope to get to reading eventually.

Yes? Reactive. I think? Ideally, we wanted to play pro-actively after by switching it up at F10 and then running with it from there to a Helios 5. But the girls and Ted put a corkscrew in that one. Every time we need to eliminate someone else's contingency plan is another night that we're hoping to finally make the switch saying "this is the last reactive move, and now we move on to pro-active," I suppose? We're trying to make the transition from reactive to pro-active, but can only do that safely once we have safeguards in place for all of the possible pro-active strategies that others can make which we could react to.

It's the same way tonight. After booting Ted, we should solid up the Helios 4 and pick off the Asterias. We will have eliminated Erin/Penny's other moves, and should dictate how it goes until the F4. Hopefully it's actually true tonight, unlike the past two (although if it is, it would make for a less interesting came for you all).

Action Items

#1) Make a comprehensive explanation for FTC of how my strategy is different from just lying and backstabbing left and right.

#2) Make a comprehensive list for FTC (or just relieving my own frustration) of all of the reasons that Penny is an awful player.

I would like to see number two done live in-confessional pls

Oh, it will be. Based on her earlier predictions about the merge having a new idol, I'm guessing that she's an alum, too, isn't she? I have to ponder if she's in one of your stories... hm... Things didn't work out for her before, so this time, she's attempting to take control at all costs, being all flippin' over the place.

No player in this game is a returning player. If they were, it would be public knowledge from the start of the game like in last Season's Noobs vs Veterans twist.

If you ever partake in Stranded again, you will play/lurk/host as Helen, and no-one else will ever play/lurk/host as Helen in your place. Same goes for her. And we've never had a Penny before.

But please, keep the ID guessing/theory to a minimum, for your own sake as well as the rules. It's too easy to fall into the traps of compromising either the rules or your own strategy, consciously or not. Just treat her as Penny, on what you've seen her do in the game.

Oh yeah, I was never trying to compromise who she's playing, or let that affect what I'm doing (as her batshit theories here are far more pressing than eliminating Brenda g.oddess). It's done-zo.

I thought the entire point of this setup was to keep everyone as an alias. So, if people re-use the same characters in All-Stars seasons, after their identities are exposed post-game, I'd take it that All-Stars aren't alias games anymore? Or, that must indicate that aliases are forbidden from being revealed in the aftermath of the season?

One final round of contemplating...

The following are things that would need to happen to cause a non-Ted Asteria to get into the F3, or things that would need to happen to cause Brian or I to be eliminated before the F3. Everything not listed in a line is assumed to go our way.

What Could Go Wrong?... with the Helios F4 Plan
We'll consider Ted an Asteria (if he stays over Rob), for simplicity, since we'd have lied to him this round

(1) we hit Asteria idol at F7 AND ALSO we lose a 3-3 tiebreaker at F6
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria
F5: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria
GAME OVER

(2) we hit Asteria idol or idol/immunity combo at F6 AND ALSO the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 3 Helios, 2 Asteria
F4: 3 Helios, 1 Asteria
F3: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria
GAME OVER

(3) the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F5 AND ALSO the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 4 Helios, 1 Asteria
F4: 3 Helios, 1 Asteria
F3: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria
GAME OVER

(4) we fail to avoid a 2-2 tie against Erin/Penny and fail to win the tiebreaker
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 4 Helios, 1 Asteria
F4: 4 Helios, 0 Asteria
F3: 3 Helios, 0 Asteria
GAME OVER

(5) Penny/Erin turn on us or do something ridiculous, thus contradicting the "you'll lose our jury votes" clause we'll put forth soon, and sealing their own fate, as well

What Could Go Wrong?... with the Helen/Ted/Brian F3 and/or the Helen/Brian/Rob/Christy F4
We'll consider Ted an independent unit

(1) Ted decides to join the Asteria alliance at F7 or F6
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER

(2) we lose a 3-3 tiebreaker at F6
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 1 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER

(3) Ted decides to join with Rob/Christy at F5
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 2 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
F4: 1 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER

(4) the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 2 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
F4: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria, Ted
F3: 1 Asteria and 2 others
GAME OVER

Conclusions

On the whole, for things to go wrong with the Helios 4 deal (barring Penny/Erin turning), each of the failures would need to be a two-pronged attack, or two things that must happen sequentially to ruin the plan. For the latter case, with Ted/Rob/Christy, our fate is entirely in the hands of Ted, and Rob/Christy/Joanna, who can take us out in a very simple one-pronged attack, if they ever so chose to. For that reason, Helios 4 continues to appear to be the safer option.

Just regarding All-Star Seasons, afaik they are just open-ID, but all game talk is asked to be kept on the game board (i.e. not on AIM etc.) although that must be a hard rule to prove or enforce icon_shrug

Good grief you think in overdrive, so just to pile on your possible outcomes.. - have you considered any way in which you go to the end with one or more ex-Asteria members and win?