Congratulations on surviving the Merge Round

It looks like you have taken the upper hand - what are the next steps?

Where do Dan & Ted fit into your plans?

Any second thoughts about Erin & Penny's capabilities?

This game would be so much more tolerable if the F5 was me, Brian, Rob, Christy, and Ted. *sigh* But not the (justifiably) pissy Rob who's been around the past day or so, the way he used to be, and without the Penny arguing.

Penny (specifically) and Erin are a fucking drain on my stamina. She is out of control.

Daniel is useless and deserves to be removed from the game and from the jury. I think I have Ted's trust, so I want to go with him and Brian as far as we can.

Tell me more about Penny's game right now.

Whats wrong with this picture??



Come back Reader's Digest Helen, all is forgiven!

I know, I've been awful recently! I'm sorry. Every time that Brian tells me "no one's been PMing me, I'm just writing in confessional" I'm like "OH SHIT."

The truth is that all of my PMs with Brian, and some of them with Ted (although they're a bit exaggerated) tend to be honest, so you needn't read between the lines for those.

Penny for Your Thoughts

The strategically immature, stubborn Penny that I thought would be a good F3 goat in the early rounds is started to veer her head again. She is insistent on coming up with these batshit strategies, telling us about them, us shooting them down, her re-proposing the same thing, us shooting them down again, and then her doing it anyways. She probably thinks that she's some brilliant strategist and that all of her plans are going to curry favor with the jury to make her appear like a deserving winner. She's not. She's just uncontrollable.

Me, Brian, and even ERIN shot down her "convince Christy that Rob joined forces with Brian/Helen to vote her out" which neither of them should ever believe. And yet, she does it anyways. I need to keep her in a position that she is incapable of pulling any upsets, because she's selfish and stubborn enough to screw over everyone in "big moves" even if it completely ruins her chance at winning a jury vote, simply because she doesn't realize it. She needs to be leashed.

And when she says that she'll be with me and Brian for F3 instead of Erin and Daniel, I don't even believe her anymore. I kind of want to come up with a test to see if Penny is telling Erin the things that we've instructed her not to, but don't think it'd even be worth it. I know that it's too dangerous to let Penny be in a position to shift the game around, so there's no point in even testing.

Twelve Angry Men

On the mention of juries, I've been thinking a lot about it lately, with Shawna being added as the first member. Brian and I both wanted Shawna out last round because we talk to her the least. We wouldn't be able to bargain with her strategically at all, so she had to be pitched to the girls as the optimal target among the Asteria's. It worked.

Having either Rob or Christy in the F3 is too dangerous because they stand the chance of pulling all four Asteria votes and ending the game right there and then. This is discouraging me from ever following through of the F4 with them (although I am trying to keep them in the game for a bit, to keep my options open and other's options closed), whereas an F2 with jury of 9 means Shawna would be gone, and an Asteria/Helios F2 would yield a 4-Helios/3-Asteria jury which could be anybody's game (and would also allow me or Brian to take out Rob/Christy at F3). But that's likely not the case, so next.

Penny, in my mind, only stands a chance at three votes: Erin, Daniel, and Shawna. The third is just because I don't know anything about Shawna so maybe she's a wildcard. She'll definitely get Erin because they're bfflyfes, and Daniel is closer to Erin/Penny than the rest of us. In an F3 situation, the only chance that Penny would stand at winning against me and Brian is in a 3-2-2 split. Even if it was 3-3-1, Brian and I would vote for each other, I'd think, so whichever of us got three votes would win. I will not vote for Penny in finals because she is all over the place, is trying to steamroll everyone, and doesn't value or consider anyone else's opinions. She is difficult to deal with, and Rob is right about her, not to mention, she's digging herself a deeper hole by continuing to argue with him like toddlers.

Christy, I might stand a chance at getting her vote, over Brian, possibly. I want to keep things amicable with her, since her vote is the one I most stand a chance at getting of the remaining Asteria 3. Joanna is a wildcard. And Rob entirely depends on if he votes strategically or emotionally, though I don't expect his ballot to be in my favor now, I also don't expect it to be in Penny's favor.

Ted, I've been getting particularly close to recently, sharing everything with him to keep his loyalty to my F3 with him and Brian. I think I could expect his vote in a F3, over Brian, because I'm being more the liaison to him for the alliance.

Erin, I won't expect over Penny, but if Penny isn't in finals, I think I'd stand a chance at getting her vote by saying that I was the one she wanted to target early of the Helios 4 since I was a threat, and yet I'm still here. This is mainly for the situation where Penny needs to be booted since she's been too much of a liability to keep around, or if Ted wins F4 immunity, meaning Brian and I must turn on Penny. This is, of course, ignoring the possibility

Brian, I'd definitely have his vote. But I have no intention of being in a F3 without him.

The Road There

Predicting how the jury will vote is one thing, but making sure that I'm not pinned to be a member of it is another. Now, how would my idea endgame line up...

Since I've already explained why a Rob/Christy endgame is dangerous, that leaves me with our current six-person alliance, but eliminating Daniel because he's useless and didn't even deserve jury, from what all the Asteria's say.

So, let's look at the Final 5, first, and then work backwards after that.

F5: Helen, Brian, Penny, Ted, Erin
Believed F3 agreements: Brian/Helen/Penny, Brian/Erin/Penny, Brian/Helen/Ted

I don't want Erin possibly winning F4 immunity, and I also don't want Erin teaming up with Penny to tie it up at F4. This means Brian, Ted, and I take out Erin, which should be a piece of cake, if we get to that point without her being immune, since Ted is against them as much as I am.

F4: Helen, Brian, Penny, Ted
Believed F3 agreements: Brian/Helen/Penny, Brian/Helen/Ted

Brian and I are in the middle and can go either route that we want, depending on who wins the immunity. I need to approach Brian about my "why I'd take you to the F2" schpeel from a few confessionals ago, just to let him know that I won't be screwing him. If he turns on me, I'm fine with that, because he deserves to win, too, but I'd like to think it won't happen because we've been through the whole thing together and we're the only sensible Helios members left.

Now, let's work backwards, from the F9, how do we get to that F5?

As a compromise, it seems like Joanna is going out this round. If not, then I'm with Ted being fucking done with Penny for being a Nazi dictator, and everything is up in the air again.

F8: Helen, Brian, Penny, Ted, Erin, Christy, Rob, Daniel

Ideally, I'd like Ted to get his third straight immunity here so that Erin and Penny can't target him and cause us to waste the idol. But let's say that doesn't happen, what now? They target Ted, with a split vote on Ted and Rob/Christy probably. Brian and I tell Ted, we vote for Daniel, and have Ted play his idol. Daniel goes out in a 3-3-2 where Ted's 3 votes are voided, the girls lose their third wheel, we can trust the F5 again.

F7: Helen, Brian, Penny, Ted, Erin, Christy, Rob

Now, what if the girls choose to turn on us and align with Christy/Rob for a 4-3 to follow? Well, I'm going to keep fueling the fire between Rob/Penny to prevent that from happening. Also, I'm trying to stay on semi-good terms with Christy (maybe Rob later), so that Brian and I would even have the option of approaching Christy/Rob with a fake-out at F7 to pull a 3-2-2 if Erin/Penny turn on us as well, making me/Brian/Ted the plurality. Also, we'll need to handle F8 very delicately to keep Penny with us, so she can update on us if any negotiations are made with Rob/Christy, maybe even claiming to be surprised that Ted played his idol, or explaining that Ted told us right before that he was voting Daniel regardless, so we had to, as well, or the split vote would have failed entirely.

Between F7 and F6, Rob and Christy have to be the next two to go because of the Asteria-heavy jury. If we make it to F6, I would hope that Penny would realize her best shot is with us instead of by forcing a tie, so that should be an easy round. Of course, keeping Ted's idol in play until then (which is damn near impossible, it would seem, unless he has both) would be beneficial.

If you'd notice, the ideal order of eliminations almost perfectly coincides with who I feel can be most approachable, from my perspective.

Didn't talk to Shawna hardly at all.
Barely talk to Daniel.
Joanna is the least trustworthy of the Asteria 3 (so she should stick around longer than Daniel, but I'm willing to acquiesce on that).
Rob is pissed at me, but we can at least have conversations, and maybe he'll be less angry in the coming days. If not, he still is the most likely candidate to have the idol besides Ted (since Rob admitted to taking all of Asteria's clues), so that's why he's this low.
Christy is my currently favo Asteria.
Erin is playing too recklessly with the idea of booting Helios members before their time.
Ted/Penny each have their pros and cons, but are currently ideal F4 members with me and Brian since they won't trust each other and will side with one of us; they're also decent F3 opponents (although Penny does not deserve to win) whereas Erin doesn't even deserve F3 in my opinion, and remember back a few days, at least some of my thoughts on having a competitive collection of finalists (in my conversations with Rob) were true.

Feel free to copy/paste any important PMs into here as a timesaver, the ones that are accurate to your own genuine plan or emotions at any point. I can read your PMs, but the post game confessional-browsers can't.

I will read this as soon as I'm back, although I'm sure you've pre-answered any questions I could think of

Without at least one of Penny & Erin's harebrained schemes coming off, you could have been looking at a tie-break situation instead of a 6-4 vote. Do you give them any credit for their scattershot approach being successful on this occasion?

If you were a juror, would you vote based on strategy or emotionally? Who gets your hypothetical juror vote right now?

We've talked before about this, but is someone being more 'deserving' of a higher spot justification enough to keep them in the game, rather than say, someone you can use to further your own game, or someone you can beat easily at the end?

All good questions. My latest confessional was more of an outline of the next two weeks, so wasn't as thorough as they normally tend to be. Also, Penny is going to hate me after reading these, so I hope you guys don't reveal our contact info to everyone post-game without authorization

Another Penny for Your Thoughts



Oh no, I definitely have to give them credit for the Daniel thing. Although, it ended up making mine and Brian's game significantly messier. Without Daniel, it'd likely have been (expected to be) a 5-5, and we'd have approached Ted to get his idol pre-TC. Doing that would have been possible, but not guaranteed, and would also reduce the number of options for the future. So yes, them approaching Daniel worked, I do have to give them credit. Their perceived loyalty to him, though, does complicate things and can potentially jeopardize their standing in the Helios 5 in the future, depending on how far they take it to protect him.

While it worked, I tend to agree with Ted and Asteria that Daniel had no right doing it. It was Daniel's own fault for being the bottom of the Asteria totem pole, because he doesn't talk to people. He said to me "I don't think I was like Cochran at all." You weren't. You were worse. You sold out, out of laziness.

Penny approaching Daniel? Fine.
Making up this whole "bribing him with the idol" story? Over-the-top. and not believable.
Proposing this plan, having me and Brian shoot it down, and then going through with it anyways? Stubborn.
And saying this to a guy who you've hardly even talked to, who could have gone to expose that everything Brian and I were doing with Rob/Christy was a lie? Selfish.

These same four questions apply to her new plans:
+ Splitting the vote (which, with a tie, could put ANY of us in danger) was shot down by Brian and I, then she goes ahead with it anyways without even refuting our points.
+ And then telling Christy that Brian and I are aligning with Rob to take her out was shot down by ALL OF US because Christy isn't stupid, she'll see through it entirely, and Penny is just being reckless in an unlikely attempt to orchestrate a 4-3-2 instead of a 3-3-3, which shouldn't be happening in the first place... Penny went ahead with that even though we all told her not to.

Her getting Daniel? Sure. Gracias.
Her approach? Nada. No bueno.

Runaway Jury



I can't say for sure, either way. I've done both before. As of right now, my order from most to least preferable would be as follows...

Brian > Christy > Rob > Ted = Penny > Erin > Daniel, and I don't know where to put Joanna but somewhere around Ted probably.

I'd like to think that it's based more on my perception of strategy than emotion, but then again, I haven't let anyone screw me over, yet. I guess you could say me putting Penny and Erin so low is based on emotion brought about by (as said above) what I perceive to be stubborn, selfish, over-the-top strategies that they've attempted to recklessly implement (which I consider to be poor gameplay).

Deserving



This is where I can start looking like a hypocrite. Yes, I would like a F4 of myself, Brian, Christy, and Rob, because it would be incredible. But, that's prevented by the fact that Asteria's are too dangerous with a 4/7 Asteria jury, and also, after the mess of Sunday, Rob will be unmanageable and the bond has been ruined. So that likely won't happen.

However, I do like the idea of keeping them around for two reasons. One, I can use them as a safeguard or Plan B down the line, because it is largely my doing that they're being kept around. And two, because if I were them, I'd be fucking angry to be losing to Daniel or Shawna, too (and probably Erin and Penny, as well). So I feel like I owe them that much.

I can't disagree with anyone following either of those two routes: taking competitors or taking goats. It's up to the individual. Mine changes based on the situation, based on the characters, based on all of that. It's more about my gut feeling and either (for the early game) keeping myself in control of my own destiny or (for the late game) the decision between winning at any cost or going up against respectable players for the jury truly to judge who is best---there's a difference between ORG's and Survivor, clearly---and at times, these can coincide with either of those two types: goats or competitors.

This'll end up coming to bite me in the ass at FTC (if I make it there), I know it, especially from Rob, so I need to make sure to have an articulate response prepared that doesn't make me look like an Amanda.

Strategy, At A Glance

For the people that don't want to read my monologues, this should briefly sum up all the strategizing.

Brian and I (with Ted in support, as well) encouraged Erin/Penny/Daniel that Shawna was the best target last round to avoid the idol with certainty, but really because Shawna is the person we'd want out most since we talk to her least.

This round, Erin/Penny want to take out Rob/Christy with a split vote. However, Brian/Ted/myself want to get rid of Joanna/Daniel to prevent Erin/Penny from joining with them at F8 or F7 to take the upper hand. Also, because I feel I owe it to Rob/Christy to leave them in, and that we can use them as a safeguard since Erin/Penny are less likely to successfully align with them.

I tried to pitch to Penny that Joanna was the best move to avoid the idol and a completely unpredictable tie (since Christy/Rob/Joanna could target any of us to avoid the idol or get revenge), but she was defiant since she doesn't want to screw over her F4 deal with Daniel/Joanna/Erin the same way that she insisted Brian and I do with our F4 deal with Rob/Christy, since apparently, only she can have her cake and eat it, too.

When that failed, Brian and I realized that we had to admit to Penny that if Ted can't fulfill his wishes of taking out Joanna/Daniel, that he's threatened to go to Rob/Christy for the votes, which would completely ruin everything this round, as we wouldn't even stand a chance of flushing the idol. She reluctantly agreed.

She doesn't want to hit Daniel, but agrees to hit Joanna, so I'll acquiesce to that point, for lack of anything better. There are enough pros/cons with idols, allegiances, and mistrust that it's a very slight difference between eliminating Joanna over Daniel, so I'll accept it so long as Ted and Brian do. Hopefully we're on track, because if Penny does try to strong arm us again (in truth, the same way that we're doing it to her now, whether she realizes it or not lol), I won't be reluctant anymore to approach Rob/Christy with a deal to take out Daniel or a deal to play the game together for longer than just this vote.

Talk to me a bit about your relationship with Brian. You have been together since day 1, you are always talking about your most secretive strategy plans. Do you intend on keeping your alliance to Brian as long as you can? Is there any point where you see yourself betraying that alliance? (I know you said you wanted to be in the final 3, but if you don't have that option...)