Helen (to Brian): While I'm dealing with the girls, can you keep your eye on the "Who is online" to see how many messages Ted is sending, because I'm not getting any, but it looks like he's doing stuff.
Brian (to Helen): Sure. I exchanged one message with Rob where he said he was just saying those things as a ploy. And I exchanged a message with Ted where he asked me what I wanted to do next with the vote, and I responded saying we needed to see where Penny/Erin and Christy/Rob stood, and he hasn't answered. It was maybe too complex for him.
He's been on the Index Page the last few minutes.
Helen (to Brian): Penny wrote:
Yes but Rob would have had to expose his Idol. Now its 2 votes into the merge and we still cant confirm whether he has one or not.
This gives Ted the capability now to flip flop his way all the way to the end while he just interchanges between the two camps every vote.
Plus you voted out the one person from Asteria that was actually voting with us.
I hope you have a plan. Because the one I had laid out for us has just gone up in smoke.
She is such a bitch. I like Erin more than her now. I'm glad Erin PMed us.
Brian (to Helen): I am, too. Ted went from index to viewing messages, to composing messages on two separate occasions. But if he's like me, we can't necessarily draw any conclusions because I'll start writing a PM, refresh to see if I get more, edit, and send in no particular order.
He's now doing it a 3rd time and possibly a 4th time. Hopefully he didn't just ask me what my plans are for next time and send it all to Rob.
Helen (to Brian): Hopefully that's the case. I'd find it hard to believe that he'd be working with them, but not impossible. Regardless, I think we handled today the best way that we could have, either way. I just saw him composing, and it struck me as odd, so I wanted to keep tabs on it. Hopefully it amounts to nothing. We really just need to keep solidifying our F3 with him, but part of that requires exposing plans to him that him telling Rob would do us harm. Blah.
Brian (to Helen): I'm trying to figure out how to even respond to Rob's last message, so I probably just went to composing for like 5 minutes, but I'm not satisfied with my response. Just casual conversation with him for the most part. I don't want to give him anything he can give the girls to use to turn us.
Even if they sound 100% with us, this move will hurt our trust with them down the road. I fear the final 8 vote. And speaking of which, we need to start thinking of a target for that and factoring in uncertain loyalties and the idols.
Helen (to Brian): Well, which side do you want to hit? Erin/Penny or Rob/Joanna/Christy? And then, which person? After you share, I'll tell you my thoughts.
Brian (to Helen): I think we need to hit Rob/Joanna/Christy because their three is too strong and a risk at final 7 with the idol. And I think we need to not warn them about the target so we don't risk the idol being played on that person. So Christy/Joanna since Rob may play it on himself? Is there any way Ted would vote Christy? I'd actually like to see that happen, because I don't think we can risk a 3-3-2 split tie.
Joanna is fine, but I hope it's not too predictable that the idol would be played on her.
Helen (to Brian): I actually want to hear what Ted wants to do, too.
We're walking into a sticky situation here, because if we keep blindsiding people who idols will NOT be played on... when are we actually going to get rid of the threat of the idol without it hurting us?
I'm worried about turning on Rob/Christy/Joanna again, because we'd have soiled our relations with them completely to a point of disrepair, and we can't trust that Penny/Erin aren't going to attempt to approach them to go to the F4. If we let them take out one of Penny/Erin, then we can get the remaining one and Ted and make a run to the F4, without fearing them turning on us, since it's too big of a risk to bring an Asteria to finals.
One thought is what if we get them to target Ted, have Ted play his idol, and have Ted and the girl's votes for Rob/Christy/Joanna? Too complicated, probably.
Brian (to Helen): Rob wants to target Erin/Penny and fulfill our original agreement now. We're actually having positive discussions.
I think final 7 would be the best point for Ted to play his idol, personally, or at least the first GOOD point for him to play it unless we're in imminent danger. If we could succeed, that gives us 3/6 in the final 6 and we may be able to coordinate the vote to prevent a tie. And I want Ted in the final 6 with us, FOR SURE.
Obviously if we don't take out one of Rob/Christy/Joanna this round, we have to do so next round so they're not 3/6 as well. I kind of like this round though because it reduces that voting block from 3 to 2 and it gives us an opportunity to do a 3-2-2 split at final 7 to maybe finally get the idol out? Actually, this can work. Rob won't play the idol and will have to put faith in us to vote out Erin/Penny. If Ted's on board for voting out Erin/Penny (please talk to him about this since he ignored my insight now for my last two initiatialization attempts) and doesn't play his idol, then his idol stays safe and we're comfortably in the final 7. Where the Helios 4 have to stick together to prevent that 4 from taking over and we can possibly use Ted's idol there.
I wasn't originally sold on turning on Erin/Penny, but I think it makes the most sense. The only problem really is it doesn't get Rob's idol out.
Helen (to Brian): It doesn't get Rob's idol out, but if we convince him that after Erin or Penny leave that the other one fucking despises us, he'll feel comfortable enough at F7 not to play it, which is when we blindside him and take it out.
Am I reading too much into this... I'm being overly blunt with him because I can't deal with it anymore.
Helen wrote:
Haha agreed. Oh yeah, I forgot that I had questions for you earlier!
Did you manage to get ANY of the clues to the Asteria idol when you were here (to at least see if they were the same as Helios)?
I'm guessing that the Helios idol password didn't work over here, right?
And, if you had the second HII, that would make things so much dramatically easier as we work out how to pick targets, and neither one would probably even need to be used, but I would understand if you'd be reluctant to share that. But...? lol
And I can't remember if I updated you on all the Rob stuff that happened during his mutiny pre-merge, but if I didn't, I'm assuming that Brian did? Or did we not update you on that, or did you have any questions, etc? (you probably gathered a lot from everything that went down the past few days, anywho)
Ted wrote:
The Helios idol password didn't work on either side. I couldn't get any Asteria clues either.
I think it was something like, you all lied to him to make him think that Erin has the idol, right?
He didn't respond to the third question. Said the password didn't work for EITHER side?
Brian (to Helen): Wtf does he mean. He does have the idol though, surely. And I did fill him in on the basics of the plan about how we lied to Rob, made a fake alliance, told him about Erin's idol, informed him about the fake Ken-Ted dynamics when Rob asked me what I lied to Ted about.
I'm pretty sure I quoted most of his interesting responses to those things as well.
Okay, so Penny/Erin are set. The question is, how do we handle this with Rob/Christy/Joanna without them telling Erin/Penny what we're doing and screwing this up? Before I send a message to Rob responding about his request to take out Erin/Penny, we need to make sure Ted is comfortable with it. If he asks about the reason for delay, we can just say we're discussing it. Are you talking to Rob actively now about next round yet?
Helen (to Brian): No, my conversation with Rob died when I told him that I was putting Penny at ease.
So... how do we vote out Erin or Penny and keep the other one loyal to us...?
Brian (to Helen): The question is, who is more calm and rational under pressure? I think Erin is, and I believe that Erin would see the logic in sticking with us and working together down the road. If we left Penny in, I could see her coming up with ridiculous theories and ideas to split votes, etc, and we'd have no idea what side she was loyal to because she's nonsensical about how she's playing the game.
So I'd support the take out Penny idea. We need to make sure Rob gives them no indication that they're being targeted, and we can tell him that this is because they might "play their idol" if they realize the Helios 5 isn't running the show. But if they feel safe, there's no reason to even give them a target idea.
Agree/disagree?
Helen (to Brian): I agree. We just need to hope that Erin doesn't fuck us. I'm selling it to Ted right now (who says that idol password was lowercase, and expires at F6... wheeeeee).
Rob is already going to Erin wanting to target me, so that should take care of it for the time being.
Now, if Erin chooses to say nothing to us about Rob approaching her... that's going to cause potential issues in the idea of us getting her back in our court later... unless... we tell her that Rob came to us saying that she was targeting me, which is why we voted Penny out... and then explain that we have to mobilize unless we're going to let Rob win the game... too convoluted? Has potential, perhaps?
And I was definitely in favor of the axe Penny or Erin plan when I brought it up before, but just want to make sure that we're making the right decision here, even though we're possibly bringing one of the Asteria's to the F5. So, final chance, before the point of no return...
Brian (to Helen): Let's do it. I'll talk to Rob about it as well since I have a message from him in my inbox asking if I'll vote for them this round from a while ago. If Erin doesn't come back to us with what Rob's saying to her, obviously we need to factor into our decision here.
If she doesn't come back to us, it's a good justification for why we voted out Penny. I was incredibly impressed with how focused her reaction was tonight, and her logic the past few days hasn't been half-bad. She's a lot different than the one sentence PMer who we hardly heard from at Helios. We'll keep her with us.
One of Asteria has to go at final 7, or they could all go to the final 3 though. They HAVE to go at final 7. And um, expires at final 6 meaning it can be used at final 6 for the last time?
Helen (to Brian): Yes, used at final six for the last time.
Also, we need to consider that if we're going to eliminate Penny, that means Rob will think that Erin has the idol when she survives. So we're going to have to do one of three things (either with Ted's permission) to make sure that he doesn't try to pull a fast one on us by playing his idol at F7---and that he saves it for F6:
(1) make it sound like Ted is next on the chopping block after that so Rob doesn't try to screw us at F7 when he'd otherwise expect Erin to play the idol on herself and foil our plans---since she definitely won't play her idol on Ted
(2) actually admit to Rob that Ted has the idol and not Erin, and we have to vote out either of them, which risks Rob thinking that we're lying
(3)actually having Ted play his idol, and hopefully guarantee that we eliminate one of the Asteria's
Brian (to Helen): I don't approve of telling Rob about Ted's idol. I think that needs to be our ultimate trump card if things go badly because we've all enforced how Erin's had it this entire time. The only problem is we risk Erin telling Rob, but will Rob believe her?Making it sound like Ted is next on the chopping block is fine with me (if Ted approves). Having him play the idol isn't something we should include in the plan (in my opinion, I'd prefer it to be saved until f6 if possible), but it can be an option if things potentially look to be going south.
Helen (to Brian): Sure, I agree with all of that, just throwing ideas out there.
Sent this to Ted about half an hour ago...
Helen wrote:
Okay, thanks on that!
Now, for next round, this is super on the downlow, so keep it between you me and Brian, since it's about setting up our F3 plan, but if we keep going after Rob/Christy/Joanna, we're going to end up having to worry about Penny/Erin turning on us to team up with one or two of the Asteria's since they are threatened by our trio now that their Daniel is out of the picture. And, Rob/Christy/Joanna think that we're with them now because of tonight's vote...
So our options are, stick with Rob/Christy/Joanna to split up the Penny/Erin partnership, and then scoop the other one up to go to an all-Helios F4 by systematically picking off Rob/Christy/Joanna. OR stick with Penny/Erin to pick off Rob/Christy/Joanna now, and hope that they willingly go to F5 with us without trying to pull a fast one on us using one of two of the Asteria's.
Which of those ideas would you be more in favor of? I'm still debating...
He read it as soon as I sent it, and stuck around for ten minutes, then left. I'm hoping that isn't an indication that he's not in favor of it, because his last message to me said that he'd be on board with axing anyone next aside from you or me. Oh, he's back now. But I'm watching him to make sure he doesn't send anything to Rob or otherwise...
Helen (to Brian): FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
Ted wrote:
I'd say Rob/Christy are more likely to go to the final 5 with us. I've been saying that for a while. I think they are the best bet for getting us to the final 3.
Who is he writing to now... Tell me if you got anything from him just now.
Brian (to Helen): I'm not getting anything from him. He hasn't sent me anything in a long time.
Helen (to Brian): So I know that Rob/Ted are going back and forth about taking out Penny/Erin next, which Ted has agreed to. Ted wanting to go to the end with the Asteria's is going to put a corkscrew in this whole plan and makes me want to reconsider a F4 with Erin/Penny... shit shit shit.
Brian (to Helen): They are going back and forth. Are you making that assumption from the PMs, or did either of you mention to the other that they're talking?
Helen (to Brian): I'm getting that from what they say, not by watching what they do. I'm getting very hesitant about this...
Rob
Helen wrote:
Yeah, Brian should be on board with it. We're good to go. Did you have to persuade or explain anything to Ted to get him to go along with it, or did he just agree outright? I'm impressed
Rob wrote:
He was actually the one that suggested it! He told me to "see what Brian and Helen are up to so we don't risk a tie." So I played along and said "Great idea, Ted!"
Ted
Helen wrote:
Alright, so the only issues with that would be if one of them wins F4 immunity, then they'd be in finals, and might stand a chance at getting the 4 other original Asteria jurors to take the game.
But also, we'd need to find a way to eliminate Joanna so that they don't bring her to F6 and tie it up with us, potentially going to F3 with Rob/Christy/Joanna.
If we're able to resolve those two things, then it should definitely be worth going for. So, obviously you're in favor of it, but what do you think we could do about the two points above?
Ted wrote:
I think I can take care of that by making them think you two will be on the outs :)
In terms of this round, do you think it might be good to blindside Erin before Penny? That way, Rob will think he has removed the idol from the game, and Rob vs. Penny can still save us from some kind of repercussion.
Brian (to Helen): Oh my god. Why must these other people be trying to make moves themselves and not just let us do everything?
What I hate about this is because Ted wants Erin as the first target, Erin's probably going to end up as the first target and that leaves us with someone ridiculous here (Penny) to be forced to strategize with. Ted will have then picked the target for the first three boots (Shawna, Daniel, Erin), won two individual immunities, found a hidden immunity idol, and have taken a mutiny risk. But despite all this, he's one of the worst communicators in this game and so hard to accomplish any conversation with. *ends rant*
Now I'm sure my last message to Ted hours ago, he just forwarded to Rob where I mentioned considering our options and possibly voting for Joanna to weaken that three. Oops. So perhaps that's why they are wondering about me. I'll try to reinforce my position with Rob.
Keep pushing the whole thing to make Rob think we're with them. Even if we back out and go with Penny/Erin, we need to make Rob feel comfortable that we're legit with him so he doesn't use that idol or screw up our plans by telling Erin/Penny about these discussions.
Helen (to Brian): This will make me look COMPLETELY indecisive, but if Ted is ACTUALLY with Rob/Christy/Joanna (or, less extremely, if he refuses to let one of them be voted out at F7, making the survivor of Penny/Erin the target, which is likely), we'd essentially be taking out the only remaining people that offer us a chance of being in the majority, and also, we'd be leaving in the game two idols that aren't on our side.
This is probably just me being impulsive. But if we get Rob's side to split their vote, the Helios 4 can all vote out Ted, which guarantees that we take out an idol, leaving a maximum of one still in the game, and then we can pick off the remaining Asteria 3 without worrying about Penny/Erin jumping ship... hopefully... although they might at the F5.
Brian (to Helen): Okay, this is super-important. And we need to make a decision really soon if we're going to keep the 4 of us together to actually do that with Ted.
If we're doing that, we need to tell Penny/Erin about these new discussions with Rob and Ted and how they want us to take one of them out. And then mention how we don't trust Ted because of what he's doing right now. And even let Erin know Rob told you about that message she sent her so she realizes Rob was out to get her and we need to weaken Ted and them.
I'm 65% up for that right now. I kind of wanted Rob/Christy/Joanna weakened from the beginning, but changed my logic thinking Ted was 100% with us. Again, the only real obstacle is Rob's idol at final 7 with no counter. We just need to pick the right target that vote, but it's just one idol.
Helen (to Brian): We have two options, the way I see it.
Trust that Ted will actually get rid of an Asteria next round... honestly not sure about that.
Vote strong with the Helios 4, and must have Erin/Penny agreed before Penny leaves. I would say eliminate one of Rob/Christy/Joanna this round, but if we don't hit the right one who has the idol, we're done, because we're facing two idols at F7 or F6.
If we go with this, then we have to deal with Penny for another four rounds (ugh), and also have to worry about Penny/Erin trying to grab the fifth person and rope them into an F3 deal against us. We could try to pre-empt that, but if Rob's idol is still in play at F6, we can't make any promises to the fifth person that they'll still be around and have F3 with us, because then they'll know who the target is, play the idol, and we're fucked.
I'm leaning towards go to F4 with Erin/Penny right now, and risk it at the F7 with one idol (since we can hopefully take Ted's out). You?
Also, given your rant there, can we both acknowledge that Ted isn't as good of a person for us to bring to F3 as we originally planned?
WHY IS TED STILL AROUND JUST LOOKING AT THE MAIN PAGE. I feel like he's watching us. </paranoid>
Brian (to Helen): It's weird because I consider Ted sort of a "meh" player in my head, but he's seriously doing extraordinarily well strategically if he is able to justify in words the game that he's playing. His only weakness is that some of his PMs suck. I thought he was one of the worst of original Helios. But no one will care about that now. *stops before I go into another rant*
Um, two options meaning 1) vote for one of Rob/Christy/Joanna this round and 2) vote out Ted this round if we follow through with that plan, right? I think we have to vote out Ted and risk it with one idol at f6. Ted was supposed to be 100% with us, and even though I believe that he probably would stick with us, we can't let him leak everything we're doing to Rob and completely force our hand, jeopardize the position of the two of us. If we do take out Ted, I think Penny/Erin will 100% understand the importance of sticking with us at 7. So we need to keep immunity in the 4 of our hands there since it will be 4 versus 3 and a 1/3 chance of getting idoled is better than a 1/2 chance. If they don't play the idol at f6, we'll come up with something, but I honestly think we have our options, but I'm comfortable enough with them to wait for the weekend to discuss them since things will change 10000x between now and then.
What is up with Ted? He is spooky sometimes. And I still haven't responded to Rob's last message.
I need to show support, but I think Ted is the perfect target this round and support it 100%.
Helen (to Brian): I swear, so much crazy shit has gone done between Sunday and today that it's ridiculous. We might stand a chance of convincing Rob that we're still with him and we booted Ted for all of our best interests because he (unknowingly) controlled the entire merge so far and had the Helios idol (although, it probably won't be in our best interests to say that). It won't work, but it might be worth trying just so that Rob puts their votes on Erin/Penny in case he plays the idol, or to keep him from using the idol. Agreed on everything else.
If Ted wins immunity, we target Rob then? Since he'd be the most likely to have the other idol.
I'll draft a message to the girls after I hear from you next about how Ted is playing both sides, has an idol (dangerous to us if he's against us), wants us to go to the end with Rob/Christy, etc etc explaining why he should be the boot. Also warning Erin that Rob is approaching her to get rid of me but it's fake, just to avoid any complications. Tell them Rob is splitting votes and that they need to SHUT THE FUCK UP and let us handle it to keep the Asteria's from figuring out what is going on. If Penny was going to be absent a day, tomorrow would be it, so that she won't be able to talk to anyone, thank god. Anything that I'm missing there?
Brian (to Helen): For sure, we can use that justification with Rob. I can imagine his level of frustration after how we've continuously lied to him about these tribal councils.
Yeah, let's try to take out Rob if Ted wins immunity. I actually fear Ted's immunity idol more than Rob's, which is pretty crazy, so I'd much rather Ted go now when he's not expecting it. Nope, that sounds good in your message. Use some of the examples you sent me, and make sure you let them know we were talking to Rob about booting one of Erin/Penny but don't plan on going through with it and how Ted wants it to happen, too. Penny DID pick a perfect day to be absent tomorrow.
Helen (to Brian): Sounds good, it'll be sent off in the next bit.
Helen (to Brian): If I don't see you proofreading this, I'm just going to go ahead and send it so I can go to bed soon...
Hey guys, so we have some MAJOR updates.
Brian and I were talking to Ted earlier, and it is now tremendously clear that he's working with the Asteria's. He proposed a plan to Rob to take Erin/Penny out next, and he's trying to get me and Brian to sign on to a F5 agreement with him/Rob/Christy.
Basically, if one of the four of us is the next to go, then all of the four of us are the next to go. So, what do we do…
Rob/Christy/Joanna think that we're with them now because of the last vote, and they want to split votes between Erin/Penny to take one of you guys out (since they think Erin has the idol, and Ted hasn't corrected them---obviously, since he has it). So if the four of us stand a chance, we have to get them to split their votes, and then the four of us vote as a solid block.
If this is 4v4 situation right now, assuming we win this next vote, it would be extremely dangerous to be in an F7 against three of them with there being two idols between them. So our best target should be Ted, with a secondary target of Rob. Here's why…
Aside from playing both sides, let's keep in mind that Ted is the first one that wanted Shawna to go last round (it happened), he was the one that wanted Daniel to go this round (it happened), and he's the one that wants Penny/Erin to go next round, this is all ignoring the fact that he won the first two immunities and might even have the second idol for all we know.
If we can't eliminate Ted because he wins immunity (again), we should eliminate Rob, because he's the most likely one to have the other idol. But Ted should be our first priority because we know for certain that he has an idol, and he's the biggest threat in the game right now.
So, right now, Rob/Christy/Joanna/Ted think that Brian and I are with them in splitting votes between Penny/Erin to eliminate you guys next round. Brian and I have to continue to let them think that so that they do split their votes, making our four votes for Ted (or Rob) a plurality.
Also, Erin, Rob came to me and told me that he was going to approach you with a fake plan to eliminate me sometime before the next TC (this happened before Ted started targeting you guys, so I don't know if Rob has already done that or is going to do that or isn't even interested anymore since Ted's new proposal came up). So if he approaches you, play along, but he's already shared that he's trying to trick you.
The important part is that none of them suspect that anything is up, and they DO expect Brian and I to be complicit in their plan, so that our four votes are enough to kick one of them out. So the main thing is, just keep quiet, don't say ANYTHING to them unless they initiate with you, and let them think that they're going to split votes between you guys and take one of you out. Penny, this should hopefully be easy for you to do, being gone tomorrow :-P
After next round, we can pick them off one-by-one and go with this group to the final four to face-off, without letting any of the Asteria's through to the F4 since if they win final immunity, they'd be a gigantic jury threat getting the votes of Shawna, the other two remaining Asteria's, and now Ted (and maybe even Daniel) meaning they'd be a shoo-in to win. But we can talk more about that to make sure that everything is solid on Thursday and going forward.
I hope you guys understand that it was of the UTMOST importance that we get this out as early as possible, so that Penny can lock in her votes before leaving tomorrow. So, the summary:
-Primary vote is Ted
-Back-up vote is Rob
-Stay quiet so that they don't suspect anything
-Don't fall for them trying to trick us by saying that we're voting for you or you're voting for us or they're voting for Penny/Erin/Brian/Helen, because it probably isn't even true, and our only chance is if all four of us stay true to this plan
Sorry for the INSANELY long post. Are there any questions? Are we all on-board with this?
Brian (to Helen): Quickly proofread. It sounds fine. I think I should wait until tomorrow to respond so it doesn't seem like I'm just immediately supporting you to make the idea look more appealing (and that doesn't seem necessary either since you included my name as far as discussing this with you).
I'm good with it.
Helen (to Brian): Off it goes. If Penny disagrees with this, we might just have to put our trust in Ted.
Brian (to Helen): She won't disagree with it. I think her and Erin want Rob and Ted out more than anything anyway. They're probably rolling their eyes and saying we should have just done it last vote. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULDN'T HAVE BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE MADE PENNY/ERIN TOO POWERFUL.
I just responded to Rob, and I'm logging out and going to bed in 5 minutes if I don't hear anything else.
Helen (to Brian): I agree. We made the right move then, and making the right move now. I'm glad that you're getting noticeably emotionally invested now
You always seem too emotionally-detached from moves, but your rants tonight about Ted/Penny have finally changed that
lol good night
Brian (to Helen): Emotional investment is fun.
It helps so much to not be multi-tasking like mad with things that can't be put aside when trying to analyze everything and write PMs figuring out the best strategic opportunity.
Alright, now I am logged out. Or will be in a second. Night!
Helen (to Brian): Just sent this to Ted since he's been lurking while we exchange. Night, again!
Helen wrote:
Just talked to Brian once last time to confirm that he's on-board with the Erin/Penny split vote plan, and he is. Everything seems all set. And Erin does sound like the best boot candidate to take out in the tie-breaker, so we're good to go tomorrow. Have a good night!
Helen (to Brian): Sidenotes, for if this round succeeds as planned:
We should explain to the girls that we need to put a mechanism in place to make sure we go to the F4, ie. if we turn on them or they turn on us with one or two of the Asteria's (even they the Asteria wins F4 immunity, if they survived F5 on a 3-2 betrayal), we WILL NOT vote for them in finals and WILL vote for the Asteria (which along with the 4 other jury votes from Asteria, will be a blowout), so that none of us can possibly win if we let an Asteria infiltrate the group. But we'd need to pick the right time to do this to make sure we aren't shooting ourselves in the foot in case we still need to leave our options open, and I don't think we do, but I probably change my mind about that every time I have a conversation with Rob/Christy.
Assuming we do go to F4, we need to do whatever it takes to avoid a 2-2, so that means we need F3 agreements with both Erin and Penny, IMO.
For Penny, we just continue the whole "we've been together since the beginning" shit.
For Erin, we explain how Penny is batshit and shouldn't go to finals. Maybe we even sellout that Penny was in an alliance with us since Day 01 (although I'm not sure when the right time to do this is, but much later). And appeal to her sense of reason that it's in her best interests to go to finals with us so that the jurors that <3 Erin/Penny aren't split between the two of them, but instead, all line-up in Erin's box, while the jurors that <3 us (after we're blindsiding over half of them by the time we get there... I really didn't expect it to happen this way) will then be split up, increasing her chances of winning. But this approach needs to come at an opportune time, and preferably late, so as to not sour things for the Helios 4.
If you can't tell, I'd rather bring Erin to finals at this point, simply out of principle that I don't want Penny there to sell her shit that doesn't smell. Erin will get Penny/Daniel and most, and maybe, on a very, very chance day, Shawna. Penny campaigning for Erin on the jury should actually build sentiment against her, and the rest of the votes should be split between us, meaning that one of us would take it in a 4-3-0, 4-2-1, 3-3-1 (where the other of us tiebreaks), and our only risk is Erin getting Shawna and pulling ahead in a 3-2-2. Really, the same situation is true of Penny being beside us, except Erin wouldn't campaign and there's only a 90% chance she'd give her vote to Erin instead of 100%.
This isn't important for the time being, at all, but just wanted to put it on the agenda for discussing at some point.
Brian (to Helen): Good morning!
Yeah, I think it's good to think ahead, even though it's not that relevant yet. Alright. Obviously now is not the time, but at some point we can explain that if they turn on us, we won't vote for them in the finals. And I think at final 7, we can stress how important it is to keep the 4 of us together to make sure there isn't an Asteria final 3. So maybe final 6 would be the right time, or after, meaning we can work on that sometime this weekend if tonight and tomorrow consist of Ted going home followed by one of Christy/Rob/Joanna.
I agree with taking advantage of the Penny agreement we made at the beginning to reinforce our commitment to her. And since Erin came to us last night about Penny was being crazy, I think she's rational enough to perhaps see the logic in sticking with us and not making it 2-2 with the justification that the jurors who liked her and Penny may split their votes between them. Which is very, very possible with Daniel for instance. I'm not sure if we should try to turn Erin and Penny against one another by telling Erin about our original agreement with Penny. That's something we need to wait and see how these votes go and who says what to us about one another to verify and test the degree of how close they still are to one another.
Penny's PM this morning about how we should've kept Daniel was just like I expected it be.
Helen (to Brian): Sounds good on all counts.
And yes, about Penny's comment *groan*
I was going to reply with this, but realized that the more I talk to or explain things to Penny, the more I end up arguing with her, and more likely she is to hate me for it and cause more issues. So I restrained myself. But seeing as you haven't responded yet, if you agree with any parts of this and would be inclined to include them in your reply, please feel free lol
First line was directed at Erin though. Rest to group/Penny.
Helen wrote:
Ah, so Rob did go ahead with it. And left Brian out of it. gj Brian
Okay, glad we're all on board.
Penny wrote:
Also guys, lets make sure they think its Joanna that Erin and myself are voting for.
But as long as they think that Brian and I are with them, it won't matter who they think you guys are voting for, since no one is going to feel unsafe and to play an idol. And if you put focus on who it is that you guys are voting for, they're going to think that something is up, and everything's going to fall apart. It's better to just let it be.
Brian (to Helen): I started typing a response, saw her new message, and gave up since she already went to them with her own ideas.
Um, we kind of need the split vote scenario so it's not a 4-4 tie. And Penny telling them that the 5 Helios (including Ted) are voting for Joanna does nothing to help us.
Helen (to Brian): I agree that I wanted Penny to stfu, but I don't think it's going to harm us much. The only worry is that Ted is going to vote with Asteria and 4-4 it, and depending on how Erin corresponds with them, they might even target one of us. I'm also slowly realizing that if we didn't come clean to Erin/Penny, that Rob/Christy/Joanna would've stood a pretty good chance of selling us out entirely this round. Hopefully Ted has both idols, to be honest. And then, when one gets re-posted afterwards, you me and Erin can take a run at the word list.
Helen (to Brian): Should we tell Rob/Christy/Joanna about Penny's plan to oust Joanna (which we can say she's conveniently pinning on us)?
Brian (to Helen): Yes. If we don't tell them about Penny's plan to oust Joanna, then they're going to think we're hiding it from them or something assuming they actually believe a word that Penny says now.
Ted can think that Penny and Erin are going after Joanna and trying to convince us to do that as well, right? But that we're completely down for taking out Penny/Erin through a split-vote this round.
And yeah, I'm ready to go through that words list. With the assumption that the idol would get re-posted if they get voted out.
I can't see Ted voting for one of the two of us (at least I definitely don't think he'd vote for you), but I could see it being a 4-4 tie between one of us Penny/Erin and then Ted.
Helen (to Brian): Alright, I'm going to run out for a bit, but when I come back, I'll shoot the messages to... everyone... about Penny being a fucking dumb ass. Let me know whatever you send until then so I make sure that we're on the same page.
Brian (to Helen): I'm on a break and about to leave again, but I should be back for the evening (not that I'll be constantly logged in the whole time) in over 45 minutes and then be on here more. I don't know if you'll be back before then or not, but if I send anything else out, it won't be until I get back and I'll let you know.
Helen (to Brian): Told Rob that Penny came up with the Joanna plan, and thinks that you/me/Ted are going along with it, but Ted hadn't even been told about it yet. Also, told Rob that Erin isn't sure if you/me/Ted are lying to them, and (since Penny is not around) might play the idol tonight without telling anyone ahead of time. Confirmed we should 3-3-2 with voting out Erin on a re-vote (per Ted's request). I've confirmed to both Rob and Christy the question "Is our main goal to get rid of the idol this round?" so that we might stand the slimmest of chances at explaining this tonight.
Then proceeded to update Ted on the events. Told him about Penny's Joanna plan. Told him I told Rob to keep Rob from thinking we were lying. Told him that to protect his (Ted's) idol, I kept up the facade that we need to split votes between Erin/Penny, and then vote out Erin on the re-vote (like Ted wanted).
We should probably make sure that our side is assigned to voting Erin and that Rob's side is assigned to voting Penny so that Ted doesn't switch (to eliminate Erin pre-tie), inadvertently thinking he's pulling off a 4-2-2 but actually doing a 4-4.
I think that's it.
Brian (to Helen): Alright, good. I'll make sure to support those stories then in my next messages.
I'm praying the lack of Penny remains, even with her phone, because I feel like this is the most smooth night (at this point) we've had in the past few days assuming your stories satisfy all the sides, which I think they will.
And good point about Ted accidentally forcing a 4-4 tie by switching to Erin if we're not assigned her. I could definitely see that happening.
Helen (to Brian): Yeah, I'll work on that later. It has been smooth, mainly because nothing is happening. But for some reason, this is the most worried that I've been in a while. A 4-4 could kill us, so if Erin goes along with Rob/Shawna/Christy to pretend to vote one of us out (since Ted wouldn't vote with them), it might not be a bad thing. She's been informed that she has the option.
Brian (to Helen): Shawna's still in the game?
Kidding...
Yeah, I think that Erin pretending to go along with those three would help as a bit of a backup to prevent the 4-4 scenario from occurring. I literally just went back and re-read Erin's message about her discussion with Rob, Penny's PM, and your PMs to make sure I had all the stories straight. But I think it all flows together nicely and if Erin goes to Rob/Christy/Joanna about it, which you set up with her uncertainty, they'll think they really did find a weakness within us.
And even though they might be mad, they'll still have to be fairly pleased to have all three of them survive the vote despite the fact that we again misled them. I honestly think we're going to be okay with the vote and that it's unlikely to actually tie.
Helen (to Brian): Hopefully that's the case. I think that it's just my nerves or something. This is the most unpredictability that we've had going into a vote. Ken, Jake, and Jan were all solids. Even Daniel and Shawna were pretty much confirmed. The 4-4 is just plaguing me. We can deal with whatever we need to after the fact, I'm fine with that, but I just want to make it through at this point. And either Erin (or to a lesser degree, Ted) winning immunity will fuck the whole thing up.
Brian (to Helen): Good point about immunity. Essentially Penny having to leave early and pre-voting forced our hand.
If Ted wins immunity, we're pretty much forced to make a move for Rob. And then Christy/Joanna/Ted will think we've been planning that the whole time and next round at final 7 is all screwed up with Ted likely playing his idol and no longer trusting us. Because we can't warn him that we're making a move for Rob.
If Erin wins immunity, I suppose we all just act like we're stacking our votes on Penny and hoping no idol is played? And that we can get rid of Erin's idol the next round or something?
Helen (to Brian): Brian wrote:
If Erin wins immunity, I suppose we all just act like we're stacking our votes on Penny and hoping no idol is played? And that we can get rid of Erin's idol the next round or something?
If Erin wins immunity, how do we guarantee that Ted and Rob/Christy/Joanna don't vote for the same person?
Brian (to Helen): That's the problem, yeah. I guess like you said in one of your previous messages, then Erin would need to make Rob/Christy/Joanna think she's with them voting for one of us and hope they would do it as well since Ted wouldn't.
We just need Erin to not win immunity, not like we potentially have the opportunity to do so if it's random or luck-based.
Helen (to Brian): Ted wrote:
That all seems fine. I guess we should go men on Penny, women on Erin?
As long as Rob votes for Penny (or anyone but Erin), we'll be fine. And Erin doesn't win immunity. Okay... okay...
Brian (to Helen): Yeah. We could hint to Erin that her winning immunity wouldn't be preferable, but I'd rather not even risk it because that may make her uncomfortable and try even harder.
Don't forget to breathe. I think we've got this mostly as solid as we can.
Brian (to Helen): Aaaannddd Rob just PMed me to confirm the plan. Otherwise, it's super quiet.
Helen (to Brian): Yeah, no Penny, no chaos.
I'm running through one final pros/cons to make sure it's not in our best interests to put our trust in Ted/Rob/Christy.
Brian (to Helen): Alright. I'd say that it isn't, but I'm still interested to hear what your thoughts are if you have any new opinions.
Helen (to Brian): This is my latest confessional slash analytical assessment. Completely agreed.
===
One final round of contemplating...
The following are things that would need to happen to cause a non-Ted Asteria to get into the F3, or things that would need to happen to cause Brian or I to be eliminated before the F3. Everything not listed in a line is assumed to go our way.
What Could Go Wrong?... with the Helios F4 Plan
We'll consider Ted an Asteria (if he stays over Rob), for simplicity, since we'd have lied to him this round
(1) we hit Asteria idol at F7 AND ALSO we lose a 3-3 tiebreaker at F6
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria
F5: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria
GAME OVER
(2) we hit Asteria idol or idol/immunity combo at F6 AND ALSO the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 3 Helios, 2 Asteria
F4: 3 Helios, 1 Asteria
F3: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria
GAME OVER
(3) the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F5 AND ALSO the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 4 Helios, 1 Asteria
F4: 3 Helios, 1 Asteria
F3: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria
GAME OVER
(4) we fail to avoid a 2-2 tie against Erin/Penny and fail to win the tiebreaker
F7: 4 Helios, 3 Asteria
F6: 4 Helios, 2 Asteria
F5: 4 Helios, 1 Asteria
F4: 4 Helios, 0 Asteria
F3: 3 Helios, 0 Asteria
GAME OVER
(5) Penny/Erin turn on us or do something ridiculous, thus contradicting the "you'll lose our jury votes" clause we'll put forth soon, and sealing their own fate, as well
What Could Go Wrong?... with the Helen/Ted/Brian F3 and/or the Helen/Brian/Rob/Christy F4
We'll consider Ted an independent unit
(1) Ted decides to join the Asteria alliance at F7 or F6
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER
(2) we lose a 3-3 tiebreaker at F6
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 1 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER
(3) Ted decides to join with Rob/Christy at F5
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 2 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
F4: 1 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
GAME OVER
(4) the sole remaining Asteria wins immunity at F4
F7: 3 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F6: 2 Helios, 3 Asteria, Ted
F5: 2 Helios, 2 Asteria, Ted
F4: 2 Helios, 1 Asteria, Ted
F3: 1 Asteria and 2 others
GAME OVER
Conclusions
On the whole, for things to go wrong with the Helios 4 deal (barring Penny/Erin turning), each of the failures would need to be a two-pronged attack, or two things that must happen sequentially to ruin the plan. For the latter case, with Ted/Rob/Christy, our fate is entirely in the hands of Ted, and Rob/Christy/Joanna, who can take us out in a very simple one-pronged attack, if they ever so chose to. For that reason, Helios 4 continues to appear to be the safer option.
Brian (to Helen): I feel like quoting that analysis for my confessional because I've never seen anything like that before.
But it's basically the same logic we were thinking of, just written out. I just got another PM from Rob, which I'm about to read. Sorry for the slight lag again.
Helen (to Brian): I'm not doing anything or messaging anyone right now, so no rush.
And I've never done an analysis like that before, either, but the decision was bothering so much that I couldn't concentrate on my show, so I had to pause and work it all out to make sure there was no reason to be alarmed or jump ship or whatnot. Just tried to be thorough with it, and only include the tribe tallies so that the "reader" (hi Brenda!) could follow along how each of the "failure modes" would potentially play out.
Brian (to Helen): Based on how many people are on the "Index page" right now, I think everything's gone quiet to a standstill the last few times I've refreshed. Joanna's the only one I've seen PMing although I've been refreshing like once every 10 minutes the last thirty minutes.
Rob and I just confirmed a little while ago with one another about how we should be fine assuming Erin doesn't win immunity.
Helen (to Brian): I think so, too.
Joanna's PMing me. It's kind of funny. But she's right. I'm trying to push burden onto Rob/Ted.
Joanna wrote:
I'm being targeted?
Helen wrote:
Yeah, didn't Rob update you on everything? If he didn't explain everything, I can copy/paste what I sent to him earlier so you know what's going on.
I copy/paste it.
Joanna wrote:
yeah I have a question. How am I suppose to believe this when this is the EXACT same thing you said to me final 10?
Helen wrote:
I honestly can't say anything, besides we voted Daniel to save you guys last round, and the conversations that I've had with both Rob and Christy go to back that up.
If you believe me, great. If you don't, I deserve that, too. If there's something more specific that you want to ask for me to explain, maybe to help things, I can do that. But you believing me isn't something that I have control over. I understand your hesitation, and given everything that's happened, there isn't much I can say to prove myself. I accept that.
Joanna wrote:
I just don't understand why we have to split the votes. The point of a blindside is so they don't see it coming therefore splitting the voting seems kinda unnecessary
Helen wrote:
Talk to Rob and Ted about that because it was their plan that they can to me with, so if that changes, it changes.
From my perspective, since Erin/Penny were the minority voters last round, and mistrust us with this vote pretty much as much as you do right now, there's a good chance of Erin playing her idol on one or the other since she isn't telling us shit about what she's doing with it tonight. The split avoids one of us going home instead. That's really as far as I know about it.
Brian (to Helen): Okay, I'm settled now, so the lags are gone. Thank you for keeping Joanna informed. I can imagine her PMing Ted asking for updates and seeing what Ted says.
Speaking of which, I'll make contact with him again to make sure he's comfortable with me as well.
Helen (to Brian): Already told Ted to expect her, and summed up what I told her before. Only 50 minutes to showtime, this shouldn't go anywhere, I'd not think.
Brian (to Helen): Of course Penny's now listed as online and composing a private message. Wonderful.
Ted wrote:
Yep, that's the plan :)
So insightful. -_-
Helen (to Brian): I know. She needs to get OUT.
Brian (to Helen): Watch her win the challenge from her phone and send us a happy PM saying how glad she was to show up, and then have the vote end up flawed as a result. -_-
She better just not log in for the next 3 hours.
Helen (to Brian): Is it gonna be this way for the next week? It's like child-proofing a glass museum.
From now on, the four of us should all always be casting the same vote, so hopefully she'll be more tolerable.
Brian (to Helen): I just got another sentence from Ted about how we had to keep immunity away from the girls.
The good thing is, with Ted out of the way, we'll just do the plan we were originally going to do tonight with the girls and for common sense reasons, they have to do it. Meaning Penny probably will have a different plan.
The main thing tonight is seeing how Rob/Christy/Joanna react to all this, assuming the vote goes as planned, and potentially adjusting based on that. I don't think it'll affect anything though.
Helen (to Brian): After tonight, they either trust us or they don't. They'll lash out at us either way. But with trust, we might get them to not play the idol, or trick them (if they pretend to trust us but don't actually). With no trust, we have no insight. It doesn't make that much of a difference.
Helen (to Brian): Those three are doing A LOT of PMing. But I haven't seen Ted, so hopefully that's a good sign for a 4-3-1.
Also, we should make sure that the girls (or, I guess, Erin, before TC) know(s) that we won't give in or defect under the threat of purple rock---since this is all of our only chance at not getting systematically eliminated.
Brian (to Helen): Yeah, I agree. It's better to take that risk than to enter a situation where we don't have a chance, especially if we've isolated Ted with the vote. If it's 4-4 tonight.
The 3 of us versus 4 of them and two idols? So ugh.
Helen (to Brian): YOU ARE A FUCKING BEAST. AMAZING. THANK YOU SO MUCH. AND CONGRATS.
28 seconds from disaster... wow
Even Ted messaged me his excitement that it didn't get messed up lol
Brian (to Helen): My heart was racing and STILL is. I LOVE speed challenges though. My Internet connection is a beast.
Poor Ted.
Gotta' do it though. I think this is all set up and in place to hopefully not get a 4-4.
Helen (to Brian): Yeah, I think we're safe from the tie now... BARELY safe from it, by the skin of your teeth, but safe nonetheless.
Brian (to Helen): I started going through Temple Council like a few seconds before Jeff said "Go" and happened to be on the right page the second he said go to find the image. Then Erin got through the Arena faster than me, which I noticed on the bottom based on who was there while searching, but fortunately found the one in Treemail on my 3rd thread try.
So nerve-wracking. Gotta get focused on keeping this together though, but I think we're solid. I wish we could just vote now.
Helen (to Brian): It's only fifteen minutes left, just a few confirmation messages, and hope for smooth sailing. Close fucking call though, incredible job, definitely saved some series damage from occurring.
Brian (to Helen): The worst thing possible would be to damage the Stranded series.
I got a congratulatory PM from Ted as well. And Erin's "I was so close but oh well" makes me want to laugh. Um, I think a congratulatory PM from Erin to the 4 of us will be too much, but maybe from Erin to Ted independently or something?
Helen (to Brian): I think we just let Ted be. We're the only ones that talk to him anyways, not the girls. As long as Rob/Christy/Joanna split their votes, it doesn't even matter.
I'm responding to group with the PROD thing now too.
And "serious" typo FUCK YOU
Brian (to Helen): Yeah, I got the same exact message from Rob you quoted. I assume he sent that to us and is probably adding a bit more to his girls. I also confirmed the vote with Ted. And I think I said these things to you last message, but oh well, I'll be repetitive.
Helen (to Brian): Eh, it's cool. Christy seems to trust me a bit more (but probably not much) and claimed that she only took an idol clue the round that Rob mutinied, but she knows that Rob took it other times (which matches with his story). But I'd not be surprised if he found the idol and didn't tell the girls about it. That is, if Ted doesn't have both. (Which if he does, would he play one for no reason this round? *fansself* it'll be okay... okay... no, because this entire thing is so that they don't know Ted has an idol...) Just more stuff to consider for next round.
My heart was pumping so much and still is. Erin winning would've been so bad.
