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Episode 09
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:04:59 pm 
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Congrats on surviving another shocking elimination.

How do you think this game will change after tonight's elimination?

In terms of trust, is there anyone you trust more or less after the last TC?


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 11:53:32 pm 
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Last TC happened the way it was predicted to. The game changes because I'm now on both sides and my game is royally fucked up, and I have way too big of a mouth saying things to people that I shouldn't and spreading shit which is probably going to come back and bite me in the ass. But I hope not.


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:25:29 am 
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Why was "Vote Dan & alienate my allies" a better decision than "Vote Rob and break Asteria's back"?

What is the worst dirt someone has on you in this game?


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:49:20 am 
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OMG everyone has dirt on me. It is so bad. I keep telling people what others are doing, and I deserve to get caught so badly. If Rob sells Brian and I out to Erin and Penny, that would probably be worst right now. No, worse still, is if Ted sells out everything that Brian and I tell him to Rob, then we're royally fucked.

Penny is reckless and needs to be stopped, so alienating her is fine. Erin seemed relatively composed, which was impressive. But we wouldn't have gone through with it unless we had some measly attempt at a story for both Rob and the girls explaining why we voted Dan, which we did. To Rob, we said it was to prevent Joanna giving in to Penny turning the 4-3-2 against Dan into a 4-3-2 against Rob, so we were protecting him. To Penny, we said Ted changed his mind at the last minute and wanted to vote Dan, so we had to comply or risk Rob/Christy/Joanna's votes taking one of us out.

Voting Rob would have allowed an already dangerous Erin/Penny too much control with Daniel and potentially Joanna (once she realizes Rob/Christy/Joanna is done), and with Christy possibly joining up with them (since she'd hold us responsible for Rob's exit regardless of truth, or want to stand by Joanna for a potential F3 with her and Dan), Ted, Brian, and I would possibly be ruined.

This is fundamentally a social game, so it's in our best interests to keep the people that we're on the best of terms with in it so that we can play with them. That's why Shawna and Daniel needed to be the first to go, because we didn't have a relationship with them at all. Rob, especially after healing our friendship today, is someone that we could work with, at least for some span of time. Same goes for Christy, to a lesser extent Joanna, and the remaining members of Helios. Letting go of Rob over Daniel would have given Penny the ammunition needed to pull the rug under our feet, and she's too reckless for us to sanely allow that to happen.


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:52:05 am 
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Would you say Penny/Erin/Dan was a more threatening trio than Rob/JoJo/Christy then?


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:21:32 am 
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How does Penny's claimed absence for tonight's events factor into your plans?


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:02:06 am 
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They Had It Coming

Brenda wrote:
Would you say Penny/Erin/Dan was a more threatening trio than Rob/JoJo/Christy then?


No. Because Rob/Joanna/Christy have an idol.

BUT Penny/Erin/Dan/Joanna was more threatening than Rob/Joanna/Christy since four is bigger than three, and four can take control of the game from this TC going forward. If we took out Rob, Joanna would flock to Dan claiming that she was one of the Rob votes, and Christy wouldn't know who to believe, but probably wouldn't believe us, letting Penny/Erin/Dan/Joanna take control.

Keeping Daniel in the game and allowing him to be a liaison to Joanna would be handing Erin/Penny the ability take over (because Penny is so god damn trigger happy with her god awful plans). Seeing that Ted is looking out for himself now, and seemingly refuses to get rid of the Asteria's---particularly Rob/Christy---makes things tremendously more complicated, which seems to be what this episode is all about, but voting out Daniel last round was STILL the right thing to do. In the words of Master Brian who is finally losing his cool/calm/collected composure:

Brian wrote:
I think Penny and Erin want Rob and Ted out more than anything anyway. They're probably rolling their eyes and saying we should have just done it last vote. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULDN'T HAVE BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE MADE PENNY/ERIN TOO POWERFUL.


He Had It Coming

So, After TC, Rob approaches Brian and I wanting for the six of us to get together to pull a 3-3-2 against Erin/Penny, eliminating their fake idol. All was well and good, and Brian and I were going to go ahead with the plan to eliminate the grand liability of Penny, and then scoop up Erin with Ted and make a run to the F4. It was perfection.

But then, something odd struck me. Rob told me that it wasn't his plan, but Ted's. Hold the fuck on.

Ted? The guy who is supposed to be in a F3 with me and Brian? Has (for not one, but two rounds now) gone to Rob and gotten him to agree to a plan, so as to force Brian's and my hand? The Ted who said he wanted Shawna gone first? Daniel gone second? And now, has decided that Erin/Penny are the next two boots, saying that he wants me and Brian to make a F5 with him/Rob/Christy?

Well, his plan presents four issues.
(1) That means we'd go to F6 with Joanna/Rob/Christy and there's no telling if they'd stick with it or if we could get Joanna voted out in what would seem to be a 3-3 or 4-2 against us with Ted potentially siding with them
(2) Even if they do stick with it, Ted with his idol would be safe that round, so if Joanna wins immunity, our F4 deal would already be broken
(3) Say all that does work out, Ted might be more loyal to Rob/Christy than he is Brian/me since he's been playing both sides for god knows how long (and we asked for it)
(4) Say Ted does stay with us, if Rob/Christy survive to F3 with a single immunity, they'll win an Asteria majority jury and our game is over

This all, not to mention, that Ted isn't the short-worded guy that we expected him to be, anymore, since he's thisclose to winning the first two ICs, dictating the first three merge boots near singlehandedly, having an HII, and walking into a F5 with two F3 deals. All of a sudden, if this Ted who hardly ever talks, can actually communicate all of this in an FTC, he just might win.

WHACK

All of a sudden, since Ted doesn't give in to anything that we suggest and forces us to go along with his plan always, unless we team up to get Helios 4 in the majority this round, so that we can run the game. And if we so much talk to Ted about potentially voting out one of the Rob/Christy/Joanna group this round, for all we know, he could be a mole to Rob.

So, we convince them that we're going ahead with the vote splitting plan, and then actually pull a Helios blindside (this is becoming a thing, isn't it? three in a row... bad, bad, bad, especially for my jury prospects)

Who do we take out? Well, once we make the hit, if we succeed, we're in a 4v3 situation, and the other side would potentially have both idols (which, courtesy of Ted, I know had a lowercase password with an F6 expiration, duly noted for moving forward). That would be awful, and we'd certainly take a blow facing two idols. So, this hit must take out an idol. Ted has one or both of them, Rob is the most likely candidate to have the other.

Explain all of this to the girls. Make sure they play along, and know that anything Rob is saying to them is bullshit. To answer your above question, Brenda, Penny not being here tonight is a GODSEND because if she was around, she would surely fuck this up by making up some new bastard plan or saying the clearly wrong thing to Rob (like her attempts at getting him to play his idol tonight, which we just god awful).

The only question is, should Rob or Ted be the target? If we hit Ted, we might stand a chance of keeping some of Rob's loyalty with some lie to pull another blindside next round and avoid the idol. If we hit Rob, we might stand a chance of keeping some of Ted's loyalty with some lie to avoid him sharing his idol with the Asteria crew and subsequently picking us off. Truth be told, I'm not sure which is the better option. But none of them are good options, because all of this double talking is soiling my chances at winning, by pulling off blindside-after-blindside-after-blindside, and lying to Rob about my vote at every single merge TC to date. It's only too long until he figures out it's the little boy who cried "wolf."

Erin > Penny

Aside from Erin's composure after TC and Penny's anticipated spazzing, she proved just how much of a liability she is in the following messages that she sent Rob. I really wish that Ted was loyal to us implicitly so that we could take her out this round without sabotaging our own game.

Rob wrote:
They know!

Subject: Tribal

Penny wrote:
I'd play your Immunity Idol if I were you. icon_biggrin


Rob wrote:
Someone's awfully cocky.


Penny wrote:
Its too late for you to go home yet. icon_lol

You dont have to worry about blindsiding me as I have a contingency plan in place. But I suggest you play your Immunity Idol. icon_wub


Rob wrote:
I'm not quite sure what you mean by either of those statements.


Penny wrote:
Sorry. As you know I live in Australia and its early morning here. icon_yawn

I meant to say its too early for my rival to be voted out. If you want to stick around I would play that Idol tonight.


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:20:44 am 
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Do you plan on trying to eliminate Penny after Ted?


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:36:42 am 
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Although I'd love to eliminate Penny after Ted, no way. We need to stop jumping ship and switching sides, and get our F4 all solided up, meaning we can't have them second guessing us and we can't second guess them. Per what I'm writing to Brian right now, that likely means that we'll need to have jury vote mechanisms to make sure that everyone stays true to it, and if anyone screws it over, the mechanism will ensure an Asteria win, eliminating incentive to turn on the four.

We'll Have It Coming

Going back to the blindsides, I honestly didn't intend to play this way. I (and I think Brian, too) expected that after that first vote, everything was going to be smooth sailing with Helios going to the top five, and our deals with Ted/Penny holding out until F4/F3. But then Erin's motives came out, and Penny's motives came out, and Ted's motives came out. And with all of these moving cogs, and having to stay in control, we ended up both sides of the field again last round and once more now, and maybe even again next.

But I can't blame any of them for their own motivations, because they're playing their own game for their own best interests and not letting us make the moves. But, even though I can't blame them, the only way to out-do them and keep our short-term and long-term games safe is blindside after blindside. The blindsides also wouldn't be as common if we knew who in God's name had the second idol, and it came out, already.

And yet, people continue to play their own games, to setup strategies where they can take us out further down the line. And the idols remain to be hidden and in play. So with that, the only way (at least in my mind) to keep my own destiny in my control is by playing out this strategy, which should hopefully prevent our allies from turning on us in the future (much in the manner that we do them XD), and which may potentially ruin any chance I have at getting the votes to win, which I may have had when the plan was an all Helios to the top five without rampant lying and deception for these next three rounds. But for now, I'll just continue to hold out hope that my chances remain intact, and do the best that I can to get there.


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Re: Episode 09
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:21:51 pm 
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Ted wrote:
This all, not to mention, that Ted isn't the short-worded guy that we expected him to be, anymore, since he's thisclose to winning the first two ICs, dictating the first three merge boots near singlehandedly, having an HII, and walking into a F5 with two F3 deals. All of a sudden, if this Ted who hardly ever talks, can actually communicate all of this in an FTC, he just might win.


Would you vote for Ted to win the game on that basis?

And if so, whatever happened to taking the most 'deserving' to the end? Why is he less deserving than whoever your current F3 partner is? (Is that Erin now, going by the Penny<Erin section??)


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